Fantasy Football Week 6 Defense (DST) Rankings and Streamers

What a weird week for fantasy defenses. We hit on six of the top 10 defenses for the week, but none of my Tier One defenses even finished inside the top 10.

The Vikings had a great matchup against Dillon Gabriel and the Browns, traveling to Europe, where the Vikings had already been for a week, and they scored just three fantasy points. The Rams were facing a 49ers team that was without Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall, and they somehow managed to score just one fantasy point, and then I really should have moved the Seahawks down when their injuries were announced, but I didn’t, and they put up -3 points against the Bucs. That’s just on me. I didn’t adjust mid-week like I should have.

Meanwhile, the Saints, Titans, and Commanders finished inside the top five defenses, and even the Patriots put up a top ten showing on the road in Buffalo on Sunday night. While I don’t think many of those outings are repeatable, I did change my rankings equation to add a bit more emphasis on the quality of the opponent, so I hope that will help catch some of these spike weeks.

As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.

Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.

2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)

WEEK 5: 6-4

SEASON-LONG: 26-24

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.

To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):

((PRESSURE RATE x 2) + PPF’S SPECIAL TEAMS RETURN GRADE + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))

MINUS

(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE x 2))

I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points allowed per game over the last six weeks because fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factor in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

DST WEEK 6 RANKINGS

RankTier One DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING1Denver Broncosat NYJ62Philadelphia Eaglesat NYG183Pittsburgh Steelersvs CLE74Green Bay Packersvs CIN15

Many of us came into this season with the Broncos as the top defense in fantasy, and while that hasn’t played out so far, they’ve been a pretty strong unit. They are 1st in the NFL in pressure rate, 1st in conversion rate allowed, 4th in EPA per play allowed, and 7th in opponents’ scoring rate. That has led to eight fantasy points per game. Now, they get to face a Jets team that gives up the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 8.2 points per game. While that may make it seem like eight points is what we should expect from the Broncos, I kind of think of that as their floor this week, so I give them a bit of a safer floor than these other Tier One defenses.

The Eagles are the upside play here, but they really haven’t been a great fantasy defense so far. They are tied for 10th in fantasy points per game, but the only stats they rank inside the top 10 for me are being 6th in EPA per play allowed. So this play is about the talent they have on that side of the ball and the matchup. The Giants give up the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 8.8 points per game, and I think that’s both telling and misleading. For starters, the Giants have a bad offensive line and lost their best playmaker in Malik Nabers, and could be without Darius Slayton (hamstring) on a short week. However, Slayton is part of why these Giants stats are misleading because the Giants were driving for a go-ahead touchdown when he fumbled against the Saints on Sunday. The Giants were later driving for ANOTHER go-ahead touchdown when Cam Skattebo fumbled in the red zone, and the Saints scooped it and took it 87 yards for a touchdown. Now, bad teams will turn the ball over, and the Giants are a bad team, but this was not as dominant a performance by the Saints’ defense as it seems from the fantasy box score. If Skattebo holds onto that ball and scores, it’s likely a 10-point swing for the Saints’ fantasy points. Still, this Eagles defense is better than the Saints’, and I expect them to take advantage of the matchup.

The Steelers are coming off a bye and rank 7th for me in my BOD rankings. On the season, they rank 2nd in the NFL in turnover rate and have averaged 9 fantasy points per game so far this season. The Browns give up the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 10 points per game, but they have been a touch stingier with Quinshon Judkins back to dominate on the ground. However, with Dillon Gabriel under center, I think this is still a plus matchup, and the Lions scored 19 fantasy points against the Browns with Judkins in the lineup. In front of the home crowd, I expect Pittsburgh to come out swinging.

This Packers team is coming off a bye, a week after shockingly allowing 40 points and tying a game against a Cowboys team that didn’t have CeeDee Lamb. I expect that their coaches laid into them all week, which means we might get a fired-up defense this week at home against Jake Browning and a Bengals offense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 12.4 points per game. I know the Bengals wound up putting up some points against the Lions, but much of that was when the Lions were up nearly 30 points and took their foot off the gas. This Bengals offense looked really bad for much of the game, and the Packers are 5th in the NFL in pressure rate and 9th in conversion rate allowed, so I’m OK with them as a Tier One defense for this week.

RankTier Two DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING5Indianapolis Coltsvs ARI56Los Angeles Ramsat BAL127Cleveland Brownsat PIT98New England Patriotsat NO10

The Colts have been a good defense for fantasy this season, averaging 10.2 points per game. They rank 4th in the NFL in turnover rate, 9th in opponents’ scoring rate, 10th in EPA per play allowed, and have PPF’s 4th-highest-graded punt and kick return team. Meanwhile, the Cardinals give up the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 8 points per game, and their running game has taken a sizable step back with both James Conner and Trey Benson on the IR. I think the Colts should control this one.

We’re going back to the proverbial well with the Rams here. Despite them letting us down on Thursday night, I just think this defense is too good to let us down again. On the season, they rank 7th in the NFL in turnover rate, 10th in pressure rate, and 10th in conversion rate allowed. They’re going up against a Ravens team that looked lifeless without Lamar Jackson. It’s possible that Ronnie Stanley will come back for Week 6, but the Ravens have a bye in Week 7, so I expect them to rest a lot of their players to get healthy and make a run after. That puts the Rams in a good spot this weekend.

The Browns are another repeated top ten defense for me. On the season, they rank 2nd in conversion rate allowed, 6th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 7th in EPA per play allowed, but they’ve averaged an underwhelming 4.8 fantasy points per game. A lot of that has to do with their offense putting their defense in bad spots, but the Browns do have 21 fantasy points over the last three weeks, so things are on the upswing, and they get a Steelers offense that really doesn’t scare me that much. I do expect Jaylen Warren back for this, but I’m OK playing the Browns here.

We think of the Saints as an elite matchup, but they actually only give up six fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. I just think the Patriots are playing well enough on the defensive end that they can have a solid game here. They have PPF’s 5th-highest-graded return team, rank 8th in opponents’ scoring rate, 9th in the NFL in turnover rate, and just forced three turnovers against a Bills offense that tied the NFL record last season for fewest turnovers in a season. I’m gonna ride the hot hand here.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

RankTier Three DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING9Tennessee Titansat LV2410Jacksonville Jaguarsvs SEA211Detroit Lionsat KC412Seattle Seahawksat JAX1113Las Vegas Raidersvs TEN2814Los Angeles Chargersat MIA2315Buffalo Billsat ATL1416Tampa Bay Bucsvs SF21

And now we have reached the point where poor matchups are keeping good defenses lower than expected and moving bad defenses higher than expected.

The Titans and Raiders game features two below-average fantasy defenses that are in great matchups. The Titans give up the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 11.2 points per game, but the Raiders also allow the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 10.8 points per game, and looked awful on Sunday without Brock Bowers, who I don’t expect to play this week, and their starting left tackle, Kolton Miller, who was perhaps their only good offensive lineman. Those matchups will make both of these defenses playable, even though neither grades out too well. The Titans have PPF’s second-highest-graded return team, which helps give them a potential avenue for a game-changing fantasy play, but they’re here because the Raiders are a great matchup. The matchup is the same reason the Raiders are here, as their only solid metric is that they rank 5th in conversion rate allowed. However, the Titans are a bad offense and needed a miracle (or two) to beat the Cardinals. I’d rather play Tennessee, but I think they can play both.

Look, at some point, we have to say that the Jaguars’ defense is just a good fantasy unit. They average 10.6 fantasy points per game and have not scored fewer than seven points in any week. A lot of that has to do with turnovers and defensive touchdowns, but maybe this is just an opportunistic defense that is going to go for those big plays. The Jags are 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, 3rd in EPA per play allowed, and have PFF’s 9th-ranked return team. I really don’t think they will be able to keep up this pace, but it just feels irresponsible to rank them lower than this.

On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars only give up 3.6 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, so this is not a good spot for the Seahawks. The Seahawks also played last week without Demarcus Lawrence, Julian Love, and Devon Witherspoon, and then lost Riq Woolen and Derick Hall to injuries in the middle of the game. I’m going to watch their practice report closely, but if most of those guys don’t suit up this week, I’d be moving Seattle down more even though this defense ranks 8th in the NFL in turnover rate and has PPF’s highest-graded return team, which provides an additional path for fantasy value.

The Lions are another team that is struggling with injuries, as Terrion Arnold left Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury and could be “out a while.” The Lions also figure to be without D.J. Reed and Khalil Dorsey, which makes it hard for me to trust them against the Chiefs despite the Lions’ defense ranking 5th in the NFL in turnover rate, 5th in EPA per play allowed, 5th in opponents’ scoring rate, and having PPF’s 10th-highest-graded return team.

The Bills have been a disappointment on defense, averaging 4.8 fantasy points per game despite having an incredibly easy schedule so far. They rank 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate, but they really struggle to convert that into sacks. The Falcons give up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 7.8 points per game, but they’re coming off a bye and have talented playmakers in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney, and so I don’t love this spot for the Bills. However, I do think the Bills will rise to the occasion after an embarrassing home loss to the Patriots.

The Chargers are a defense I’m not super excited to play. They rank 3rd in the NFL in conversion rate allowed, which is good, but they’re average everywhere else and average just 5.4 fantasy points per game. I also think their offense is going to have a lot of short drives without Omarion Hampton for the next four weeks. That being said, this Dolphins offense without Tyreek Hill is really uninspiring, so I can see playing the Chargers in deeper formats.

This Bucs rank is going to depend on the health of the 49ers’ offense. We know they’re likely to be without George Kittle for another week, but the status of Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall will heavily impact where I rank the Bucs. As of now, I expect them to play, so we’re going to keep the Bucs here since their defense is 7th in the NFL in pressure rate, but not in the top ten in any other metrics I like to use. On the other side, the 49ers rank 4th in opponents’ scoring rate, but are just 24th in the NFL in pressure rat,e and the only reason to attack the Bucs offense is if you’re going to get pressure against their beat-up offensive line. I don’t see the 49ers doing that, so I’m going to avoid playing them.

RankTier Four DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING17San Francisco 49ersat TB1318Washington Commandersvs CHI1619Kansas City Chiefsvs DET820New Orleans Saintsvs NE2221Dallas Cowboysat CAR2922Chicago Bearsvs WAS2023Miami Dolphinsvs LAC30

Commanders are 9th in the NFL in pressure rate and 10th in opponents’ scoring rate, and have PPF’s 6th-highest-graded return team, but they get a solid Bears offense coming off a bye week, so I’d rather not play them. I also know the Commanders offense is banged up, but Terry McLaurin could be back this week, and they finally turned the running back room over to Jacory Croskey-Merritt, so I’m avoiding the Bears, despite them ranking 3rd in the NFL in turnover rate.

The Saints have PPF’s 9th -9th-highest-graded return team, but they also rank 6th in the NFL in turnover rate, so they have had some fantasy goodness in the past. The issue is that much of that came this past weekend against the Giants. However, the Patriots do love to fumble the ball, so perhaps the Saints can capitalize again. I just can’t bank on that.

The Cowboys might be in play in deeper formats only because the Panthers give up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses at 9 points per game. However, this Cowboys defense is really bad, and so I can’t get too excited about playing them. Same for the Dolphins against this Chargers offense that won’t have Joe Alt or Omarion Hampton.

RankTier Five DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING24Atlanta Falconsvs BUF1725Carolina Panthersvs DAL2426Arizona Cardinalsat IND1827New York Jetsvs DEN3028New York Giantsvs PHI2529Baltimore Ravensvs LAR2930Cincinnati Bengalsat GB2631Minnesota VikingsBYE332Houston TexansBYE2

Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.

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