AFL grand final preview — how corridor control and the hard ball can lead Brisbane to back

Expectations can be a fickle beast. They drive hope for better times, but are often at the root of great disappointment.

When Chris Fagan arrived at the Brisbane Lions they were almost at rock bottom. The Queenslanders had failed to make the finals for the past seven years, with the prior three stuck in the bottom four.

Expectations of success weren't just low — they were non-existent.

Their training rooms flooded and the crowds were staying away. The glory days of the early 2000s were the distant past and fading fast every single day.

Fagan's first year in charge was little better, with the club earning their second ever wooden spoon in their merged history. Most guessed that things could only get better, mostly because they could hardly get worse.

It took a couple of years but fortunes started to change. The Lions got off to a hot start in 2019, but Fagan was quick to put the brakes on.

"I can't control the expectations," he said.

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"People will no doubt talk us up, but we'll just stick with the week-to-week approach we've had all year."

It was soon apparent that the Lions were here to stay, regardless of any attempts to pump the brakes. In 2019 they finished third on the ladder before crashing out in straight sets. Not content to rest on their laurels, the Queenslanders kept building, culminating in a tight grand final loss in 2023 and their ultimate victory last year.

That doesn't mean Fagan stopped trying to keep Brisbane — and their fans — honest. Before this season Fagan even seemed to suggest that they didn't need to unfurl the flag this year.

"We had the celebration last year in September when we won," he said.

"We don't need another celebration in March to be honest. I know it's tradition to unfurl the flag, but we've moved on from that fantastic moment."

All through the season Lions players have talked about tempering expectations and putting last year behind them lest they become stuck in the past. Instead of a mission to win a second flag in a row it seemed like Brisbane was shooting for their first again, albeit with a target on their back.

Still, Lions fans have dared to dream. The last time the Lions won one flag, they won three in a row. This time around there's more people watching up north, and more Queenslanders on the field.

On Saturday the Lions journey comes to an end against a side they've already beaten (and lost to) this year. Will this reworked version of last year get the job done?

Typical system

Most successful football teams have a style or identity that sets them apart. Brisbane are no different.

A Lions game sees them controlling play by executing kicks to uncontested marks around the ground. No side takes more uncontested marks than the Lions, and only two prefer to kick rather than handpass more (Geelong and Adelaide).

This control of the game was a large part of their run to the flag last year — both moving the ball down the ground effectively and taking opportunities away from opposition sides.

Most teams executing this strategy would utilise wider parts of the ground as these are usually the most sparsely defended bits.

Not the Lions.

When starting in their defensive third the Lions use the ball aggressively through the prime real estate in the middle of the field. The Lions boast skilled ball users across all lines, able to pick holes in the most solid defences. If opposition sides slip on their coverage schemes, the Lions can take the game right away from you.

It's why Collingwood captain Darcy Moore told his team to "own the (expletive) corridor" before their final last week. That's something the Pies struggled to do, which is why the Lions are back in Melbourne for one more week.

Establishing the corridor is not just important for the direct results it gets — it also forces opposition sides to adjust. It makes the ground harder to defend and opens gaps elsewhere. If opponents get too negative after the Lions establish the corridor it can hamper their own scoring, too.

In their two wins against the Cats earlier this year, Brisbane forced the game through the middle about 50% more than an ordinary game. This opened the Cats defence up in a way that few other sides have been able to do this year. It's also noteworthy that the Cats have struggled against the Giants, another side to target the middle of the ground.

In the qualifying final, the Cats went to a lot of effort to not only stop the Lions going through the middle, but to avoid the corridor themselves. When a side uses the guts of the ground it can also open you up for a quick counter attack the other way.

Of course, to move the ball anywhere you've got to get it first.

The hard grind

Arguably the biggest story for the Lions coming into the game centres around the selection of premiership captain and two-time Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale.

The veteran midfielder has managed just one injured game in the last six weeks, playing only in that finals loss to Geelong. Most believed Neale's season was over when he injured his calf in that final but he has made a speedy return to bolster one of the units most critical for the Lions success.

Across the course of the year getting first possession — and the territory from it — has been key to how the Lions have succeeded. The Lions sit second throughout the season for clearance differential behind only the Western Bulldogs. Almost all of this advantage comes around the ground, with the Lions deep midfield group benefited by being able to deploy additional numbers around the ball. Despite not having an elite tap ruck, the Lions are able to effectively control

This advantage hasn't been consistent week to week however.

Towards the back half of the regular season the Lions found their stoppage game starting to become less potent. The post season bye can allow opposition sides to focus better on the leading sides, potentially leading to some ground being lost by last year's champions. However, those mid-year blues were extinguished in recent weeks, with the exception of their loss to the Cats.

Much of that progress was made without their co-captain.

Some questions exist around how Neale will reintegrate, as talented as he is. The midfield group has seemed to find their feet without him, striking a balance between ball winners, line breakers and defensive options.

This balance and Neale's fitness may see his talents deployed more in bursts around the ball, rather than in a full time role.

Regardless of the choice, Brisbane will likely need to win clearances to have a real chance of repeating last year's success.

Fading frontiers

What happens in the middle of the ground is so important for the Lions this year due to some hiccups closer to each goal.

Due to retirements, injuries and the league adjusting, the Lions have not been their recent selves either scoring or stopping opposition sides.

If there has been a cornerstone of the Fagan-led Lions it has been their attack. Few sides have attacked with as much flair or efficiency as the men in maroon.

While much of their game picked up on their march to the flag last year, their attack tempered just a little. This year that relative decline has continued to the point that it isn't their biggest strength.

A large part of this decline has been due to the changing of the guard of their tall stocks.

The retirement of Joe Daniher left a hard void to fill — one which was exacerbated by the mid-season injury to the versatile Eric Hipwood.

Logan Morris has increasingly impressed as the year has progressed, but Morris doesn't space the forward line or operate as a distributor like the other two.

Ty Gallop — notionally the second tall forward — is just 19-years-old and has played just five games of league football. In February, Fagan was optimistic about Gallop's potential impact.

"There's another young bloke that we drafted this year from our Academy, Ty Gallop … don't be surprised if he's a person that pops up this year as a pretty good AFL player," he said.

Both are shorter than 195cm however — which is on the smaller side for a modern key position forward.

That means Brisbane generally has to rely on generating a high volume of inside 50 opportunities, including repeat entries from forward pressure. The Lions have also been the best team at generating clearances inside their forward 50, scoring nearly two goals a game on average.

This approach means that the Lions can get by even without having true tall targets to operate through. Through their long established principles and versatility, the Lions have overcome what could be fatally damaging to their hopes.

Down back it's a similar story, with injuries to Jack Payne, Darcy Gardiner and Brandon Starcevich hampering their defensive game.

In the middle of the year Fagan noted their sluggish start without the ball.

"I guess team defence is the one that drifts as much as anything because it's an attitude thing," he said.

"We've picked that back up and hopefully we can keep that going again for a while."

Instead of a strong aerial game the Lions have had to work more off spoils and ground level intercepts. Harris Andrews has had perhaps his finest year to date, which has helped them keep their heads above water.

Still, adaptability and survival is far better than the alternative, and the Lions are still finding a way to win the ball from opposition sides.

Repeat, or threepeat?

On Saturday evening the weight of expectations will be lifted from the Lions shoulders one way or another.

Most of the Lions team, alongside Fagan, have experienced both extreme elation and sadness after the biggest game of the year. They know the challenge ahead of them more than anyone else could possibly know.

The Lions and Cats are also very familiar with each other and how they play. The Lions have the edge so far this year, but that will count for nothing if they can't execute one more time.

If they can control the middle of the ground and the pace of play, they will be firmly on the way to becoming just the fourth side this century to repeat as champions. If that happens, Brisbane fans will start to hope for a second threepeat.

Regardless of result Fagan will be lowering expectations all over again next year.

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