Cal-culations: Lions' dynasty just starting, big backroom decisions loom, Collingwood's cliff coming

AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at why Brisbane has a long time to come at the top, the key decisions coming on Monday and more in Cal-culations

THE LIONS ARE GOING NOWHERE

BRISBANE is three years into its dynasty, but this may only be the beginning.

The Lions became the first team since Hawthorn in 2015 to reach three straight Grand Finals with their strong win over Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday, as Chris Fagan's side gets to the end of its seventh straight finals campaign.

But it is hard to see where or why this Lions run is going to stop.

Against the Magpies, fifth-gamer Ty Gallop was the highest rated Lion on the ground. The key forward kicked three goals from 11 disposals and alongside Logan Morris will spearhead the Brisbane attack next week against Geelong. Gallop is 19, Morris is 20, by the way.

Morris' capacity to stand up this season in the absence of Joe Daniher has been remarkable, with the mobile tall booting 52 goals and again having a big presence against Pies skipper Darcy Moore on Saturday.

But those two were among eight Lions aged 22 or under who featured in Brisbane's preliminary final win, alongside Will and Levi Ashcroft, Sam Marshall, Darcy Wilmot, Kai Lohmann and Jaspa Fletcher.

Cal Ah Chee looks set for his final game for Brisbane this week as he casts his eye on a Trade Period move to Adelaide, and Brandon Starcevich is weighing up West Coast's offer for him.

But Brisbane will also gain free agents Oscar Allen and Sam Draper, as well as top-five Academy pick Dan Annable, while it is chasing Essendon defender Jordan Ridley as well. And its core of Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Cam Rayner and Zac Bailey are all 27 or under and at the peak of their powers.

McCluggage has enjoyed two weeks of freedom but will have Cats tagger Oisin Mullin again in his back pocket after their qualifying final battle, and Geelong will take some beating at the MCG, particularly given Brisbane's two trips to the venue already this September.

Brisbane has been written off several times this season after poor losses or another significant injury blow, most recently after that final defeat to the Cats when Lachie Neale was – at that stage – ruled out for the rest of the season with his calf injury.

But with Neale now looking likely to return in a remarkable recovery, Brisbane too has back-to-back success in its sights.

Three consecutive Grand Finals would be the crowning achievement for most clubs and mark the end of an era. It did for the Hawks a decade ago, and for the Lions a decade before that after their fourth in a row in 2004.

But this Brisbane is by no means fading or clinging to a window. Its era isn't slipping, it's just setting in.

MONDAY'S BACKROOM DECISIONS

WHILE most eyes will be on the Brownlow Medal on Monday night, the future of football will be shaped on Monday afternoon.

Football's night of glamour shares the stage with a day of reckoning.

Two meetings – that of the AFL Commission and separately the club presidents – will see key decisions mapped out.

For the Commission, the most immediate decision they have to make is on West Coast's bid for list assistance. The Eagles have made their final submission on their request for help after discussions with the AFL, and up to four extra rookie positions looks part of the likely outcome.

That would see the club be able to list more of its Next Generation Academy players, while also giving the Eagles room to add experienced players as rookies to bring experience to their list. West Coast has also raised receiving an end-of-first round pick that it can hold or be forced to trade, in a move that would make trading for Brisbane's Brandon Starcevich simpler given its pick hand.

Access to Academy players under pre-list terms without having to match a bid, like Gold Coast received in 2019-20, would also be high on their agenda.

As AFL.com.au revealed two weeks ago, their hope to get an exemption to not have their free agency compensation pick for Oscar Allen diluted by bringing in another free agent won't proceed but an extra pick from the AFL would be a workaround.

The Commission will be briefed on Tasmania's list build rules and, having delayed its final decision at its August meeting due to the uncertainty around the club, the Devils are hopeful their sweeping hand of start-up concessions will be rubber-stamped this week.

So, too, are other clubs, given the Devils will be involved in the 2027 Trade Period ahead of their proposed 2028 start date and clubs will be dealing in 2027 picks in this year's exchange window.

The AFL warned clubs last month it would consider a 'draft lockout' at the top end of the draft, stopping them from matching bids on father-son and Academy players in the early reaches of the draft. AFL.com.au has revealed strong feedback from Essendon, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and Sydney rallying against such moves, but the bidding system, as well as the future of the Next Generation Academies, are set to be discussed with the Commission as well.

The AFL has undertaken a long-running, detailed review of the NGA rules and zones, and clubs are waiting to hear about how their zones will be reshaped with Tasmania's impending inclusion to the competition seeing North Melbourne lose that region and need a new area.

And then there are Greg Swann's in-game recommendations that will also be presented to the Commission: the last-disposal rule, the abolition of the substitute and a way to bring back the jumping ruckmen at centre bounces.

A timely discussion is also expected on the future of the pre-finals bye, with many clubs believing this would be the final year of it occurring at that point and being instead placed after the preliminary final. That was before Tom Stewart's concussion on Friday night, which will now rule the star Cat out of the premiership decider under the 12-day protocols. Had the bye been between the preliminary and Grand Finals, Stewart would be available.

Club presidents will also meet for their annual Brownlow Medal day discussion, with the politics and path ahead for potential Commission candidates continuing. The expectation for stern discussions on bidding rules is also expected, given the bloc of clubs fighting for change and those resisting it.

So while Brownlow night will likely belong to one of Nick Daicos, Bailey Smith or Noah Anderson, the high-stake gatherings of the game's powerbrokers will thrash out some of the grittiest decisions behind closed doors.

COLLINGWOOD'S CLIFF COMING

COLLINGWOOD has tried to sidestep football convention. But no club can outrun time.

As football's oldest ever team, the Magpies have wanted to continue to replenish with older, experienced options while their side of veterans continue to challenge for another flag. It is an approach that got them one win away from another Grand Final.

But after being overrun by Brisbane at the MCG, coming on the back of a stodgy end to the home and away season, the Pies are already essentially in for 2026, having re-signed Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jeremy Howe.

They have tabled two-year offers for Brody Mihocek and Jamie Elliott, with Mihocek strongly considering a move to Melbourne and Gold Coast eyeing Elliott if he wants to move. The Pies' reliance on Elliott, again on show in the preliminary final loss, highlighted why he warrants staying on, but Mason Cox and Tom Mitchell are also out of contract.

After the loss, Pies coach Craig McRae said the club would balance the need to focus on the future through the draft with bringing in experience, with the club expected to approach Melbourne defender Steven May, who is set to exit the Demons. They are also expected to land Sydney forward Jack Buller, as a likely replacement for Mihocek. There was a softening of McRae's 'players, not picks' mantra from last off-season, despite the Pies not currently holding a draft pick until No.34.

Given the Pies have the game's best player, a 22-year-old Nick Daicos, Collingwood has taken the approach to perpetually attempt to contend and find assets around him. That was last off-season, when Dan Houston, Harry Perryman and Tim Membrey joined.

But Daicos was Collingwood's second youngest player against Brisbane (a month older than Ned Long) and the Pies must take a look at the future before it catches up with them.

DANGER'S DUSTY CHALLENGE

CHRIS Fagan be warned, Danger is ahead.

What a performance from Patrick Dangerfield on Friday night. It was witnessing greatness in real time and for Sam Mitchell it was a bad dream live stream. Dangerfield grabbed his Cats side and threw it on his shoulders to produce a remarkable performance – as evidenced in the data.

His 31 disposals, three goals, 20 contested possessions, eight clearances, nine inside 50s and 13 score involvements were the result of a man possessed.

Champion Data shows his AFL Player Rating of 29.4 against the Hawks was the sixth highest rated final on record by any player since Ratings were introduced in 2010, the No.1 rated preliminary final and the highest rated final by a Cats player.

It was Dangerfield's own highest rated game since 2019 (bear in mind he was an All-Australian in 2019 and 2020, won the best and fairest in 2019 and was voted player of the finals in 2022).

Dangerfield became the first player on record since 1999 to have 20 or more possessions and three or more goals in a final.

But as he leads the Cats into the Grand Final, the 359-gamer also didn't as much turn back the clock as rewrite what time and age was supposed to mean in AFL.

His game was the third-highest rated ever by any player over the age of 35, with only North Melbourne great Brent Harvey ahead of him, while he became the first player over the age of 35 to win 20 or more contested possessions in a game.

The champion Cat is now approaching Dustin Martin levels of September greatness. The preliminary final effort against the Hawks was Dangerfield's sixth game of a Player Rating of more than 20, which is seen as an elite, rare marker. Only Martin (eight) has more, with Dangerfield passing ex-teammate Joel Selwood, Brisbane's Lachie Neale and Swan Josh Kennedy on five.

Martin's triple Norm Smiths may forever live unmatched but another premiership and big Grand Final performance from Dangerfield (he came second in the 2022 Norm Smith Medal voting) will further underline his big game status.

THE BRAINIAC EDGE

COLLINGWOOD didn't just lose Scott Pendlebury the player minutes into Saturday's preliminary final. The Pies also were without one of their on-field coaches, or what we're dubbing to be the 'Brainiac effect'.

When rival clubs wonder about why the AFL's 'Big Four' of this century – Geelong, Brisbane, Collingwood and Hawthorn – continue to front up for flag chases, they should look deeper into the advantage each has developed in recruiting, harnessing and deploying their on-field coaches.

The brainiacs are the eyes in the storm, the commanders of the chaos. Every club has its runners and finishers but the brainiacs direct traffic, set traps, spot weaknesses and are the players coaches rely on most in carrying out a gameplan and adjust on the go without direction.

When the heat is on, the brainiacs don't panic. They think.

Tom Atkins is an unofficial captain of sorts at Geelong, particularly through a midfield that has such playmakers as Bailey Smith and Max Holmes. Throw in Gryan Miers, Tom Stewart and Jeremy Cameron, and the Cats have a quartet of brilliant minds pulling a game together upon which Chris Scott can lean.

Brisbane has developed its own set of coaches on the field, too, with Dayne Zorko as much a strategist as clever half-back, midfield trio Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Will Ashcroft having innate understandings and Harris Andrews one of the best key defenders of the century. Zorko had a second-quarter malfunction against the Pies but regained his steel after half-time to help steer them to the win.

Collingwood's brainiacs span overlapping generational greats in Pendlebury and Nick Daicos, with the pair running the Magpies from ground level. Steele Sidebottom and Josh Daicos also hit the mark, while the addition of Harry Perryman gave Collingwood another field general this season. Pendlebury's calf strain saw him take those coaching traits to the bench thereafter, but the Pies lost his organisational presence as the Lions took control of the game.

Hawthorn captain James Sicily has led the Hawks as skipper and chief brainiac, while Jack Gunston is their forward-half thinker and Blake Hardwick their 'anywhere' man. Jack Ginnivan's ascent this year has also come on the back of understanding the game better than most.

There are more, of course, at each club but the strength of the best teams to recruit and depend on players able to direct the play while out there as a secondary layer of the coaching panel is an under-the-radar element of the success of the preliminary finalists. And the best footy brains will be central to Saturday's premiership decider.

COMPETITION COMMITTEE

THE AFL will set its sights on filling its new competition committee in the off-season after announcing its return mid-year.

The committee's comeback for the men's competition as a guiding group of figures from the industry and club-land was confirmed in June shortly after Greg Swann's arrival at the AFL after being poached from Brisbane.

It came before the appointment of Tom Harley as the chief operating officer, with Harley to begin in his role officially next month.

Past members of the committee have included members of the AFL Commission, AFL executives, club presidents, chief executives and senior coaches and players from a selection of clubs and different markets.

SIGNED UP FOR THE SIGN-ON

IN PRAISING Geelong and Hawthorn ahead of Friday night's preliminary final, AFL boss Andrew Dillon read out the number of top-four finishes for those clubs, as well as Collingwood and Brisbane, this century.

Then Dillon, in addressing the pre-game function with a knowing nod, said the punchline had something to do with equalisation.

Six days after the Grand Final, the free agency window will open and see Brisbane land Sam Draper and Oscar Allen. Three days after that, the Trade Period will start and see Geelong try every which way to land Charlie Curnow. Hawthorn, a few goals off the Grand Final, is trying to poach Essendon skipper Zach Merrett, and Collingwood's cap is the only thing stopping it from being in the same market.

It is why the AFL is looking at ways to fix free agency, including a 'sign-on bonus' for free agents who leave clubs to join those in the bottom four or six on the ladder. As revealed last week on Gettable, it is a measure the AFL is considering to incentivise players leaving clubs and joining those building sides. The clubs would essentially be given extra salary cap room to use on free agents.

Other fixes have been put forward by clubs: teams who finish outside the top eight being able to sign free agents without diluting compensation picks for losing free agents (this seems logical and likely), teams who finish in the top four only being able to sign a certain amount of free agents per year and compensation picks starting at No.11, after non-finalists have all had their first picks.

Free agency wasn't meant to service just the top clubs but since its inception in 2012, only four players – Matthew Leuenberger in 2015 (Brisbane to Essendon), Brandon Ellis in 2019 (Richmond to Gold Coast), Aidan Corr in 2020 (GWS to North Melbourne) and George Hewett in 2021 (Sydney to Carlton) – have left as restricted free agents (generally the most in-demand players) and joined a bottom-six team that year.

Throw in the spin-off of free agency – players in contract nominating new homes and putting pressure on their clubs to relent and send them where they want to go – and there are problems to solve. Concepts like the sign-on bonus are a starting point.

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