Monday Cal-culations: Footy's dual truths, Dogs signing watch, 'young Dusty' rising

In Monday Cal-culations, Callum Twomey takes a look at the NT's push for an AFL licence and Hawthorn's call to rest Jack Gunston

Luke Jackson, Marcus Bontempelli and Bailey Humphrey. Pictures: AFL Photos

AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at football's dual truths, the unsigned stars at the Bulldogs and Geelong's crowd numbers in Monday Cal-culations

FOOTBALL'S DUAL TRUTHS

TWO THINGS can be true at once. We just saw a whole weekend of it.

Take Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir saying other clubs were fanning the flames of Luke Jackson's trade speculation as an example. That's right, other clubs have been aware of the Jackson return to Victoria possibility for many months. But equally so is the reality Jackson lit the fuse on the trade talk with conversations with former Melbourne teammates. Two things can be true at once.

Jackson's performance as the Dockers' sole ruckman in their win over Greater Western Sydney on Saturday should add further weight to the Dockers' stance they wouldn't trade him back to Victoria and should have them strongly considering what a trade outcome for Sean Darcy could be.

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Two things can be true at once: the Giants have some great midfielders but not a great midfield. Tom Green and Finn Callaghan are young stars of the game, but they are missing Josh Kelly, Brent Daniels and Stephen Coniglio and lack the engine room depth of other contenders. The GWS midfield got smacked by the Dockers (43 clearances to 32 and 15 centre clearances to eight), and they had 13 ground ball gets for the game (a club record low).

With Kieren Briggs down on form this year and now Callaghan to miss weeks with his shoulder injury, Adam Kingsley's team has been a step off the best this year.

Two things can be true at once: Melbourne took too long to adjust its game plan to the rest of the competition but is reaping the rewards of it now. Four wins from their past five games, with an average of 91 points a game, has the Demons as a five-goal better team than between rounds 1-5 (when they averaged 61 points a game).

The Demons have been regenerating their list on the run for the past few off-seasons and are seeing some of the talent, like Harvey Langford, Xavier Lindsay and Caleb Windsor, play with dare and drive. One stat stood out late in their win over Brisbane – Melbourne had only 10 handballs for the last term as a team (the second lowest recorded by a Demons team for a final term and the lowest by any team this year). Their willingness to get it on the boot and take metreage broke apart the Lions.

Two things can be true at once: the Hawks should be managing Jack Gunston's schedule and workload, but they picked the wrong game to do it. Calsher Dear is the future and needs to be played but it was a tough match to return from injury to face a red-hot Gold Coast at TIO Stadium.

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The Suns' Darwinian evolution to be unbeatable in the Top End was nearly halted by the Hawks, who got within eight points in a Thursday night shootout. Gunston had kicked 19 goals in the previous five games and could have been the difference.

But there's more cases where truth isn't a single lane.

Damien Hardwick added more pressure to Bailey Humphrey last year when he compared him to Dustin Martin, but he wasn't wrong. Humphrey is absolutely rising as an emerging star, was crucial again late in the win over the Hawks and kicked a brilliant goal showing his power.

He is the No.1 rated general forward in the AFL this season – ahead of the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Shai Bolton, Jack Higgins, Jamie Elliott and teammate Ben Long – and if he was on Broadway more, Humphrey would rightly be getting some 'young Dusty'-like wraps. That might be to come.

Essendon is young, injury-hit and following a long-term plan, but can't dissolve as easily as Saturday night's battering at the hands of the Western Bulldogs, who have feasted on the Bombers throughout Luke Beveridge's 11 years as coach.

Hayden McLean and Ollie Florent will play key roles this year for Sydney but Dean Cox's big call to drop one and make the other the starting substitute against Carlton showed that names and reputations won't linger for the Swans. It was a strong pair of decisions from Cox that hit the mark.

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BULLDOGS' BIG QUESTION

WHO SIGNS first at the Western Bulldogs – Marcus Bontempelli or Luke Beveridge?

It is an unusual position for one of the genuine premiership contenders to be midway through the season and have their captain and coach both out of contract.

Bontempelli has delayed starting talks so far. He wanted to get the season started first, but then got injured. Then he wanted to get back to playing and playing well. Tick tick. If he has wanted to wait for the Dogs to get other signings done – like Sam Darcy and then Ed Richards – that's a double tick too.

Beveridge has made enough noises that he is ready to get the ball rolling on contract talks and has said he won't be coaching anywhere else in 2026 if it's not at the Dogs. He has worked through myriad injury and other challenges this year and the Bulldogs only look more in sync as a team.

Luke Beveridge, Marcus Bontempelli and the Western Bulldogs ahead of their 2024 elimination final against Hawthorn. Picture: AFL Photos

Champion Data shows how the Dogs' profile is humming: they are No.1 in disposals, disposal efficiency, points from clearances (and differential), points from centre bounces (and differential), clearance to score percentage, centre clearance differential, clearance differential, time in forward half differential and defensive 50 to inside 50 percentage. They are also the best scoring team in the competition.

Is Bontempelli wanting to see what happens with Beveridge? And how long will that take to unfold? The Dogs have their mid-season bye in round 12 – it seems the opportune time to get signing business done, or at least started, on both fronts.

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INTERIM BOSS COMING AT PLAYERS ASSOCIATION

AN INTERIM boss of the AFL Players Association will take over after Paul Marsh's exit as the players union works through his long-term replacement.

Marsh is finishing at the AFLPA at the end of May to be the Australian Cricket Association's new CEO. The PA has recently appointed a recruiting firm to run its search for Marsh's eventual successor but an interim internal candidate is considered likely for the coming months as they work through the potential contenders in a formal process.

AFLPA executives Michael Jamison, a 150-gamer at Carlton, and Ben Smith are possibilities, while Regan Bunny was the interim boss last year during Marsh's period of leave at the AFLPA.

AFLPA CEO Paul Marsh. Picture: AFL Photos

Clubs have pushed Fremantle champion Matthew Pavlich's name as a candidate for the role and he is locked in to be on the PA's shortlist of targets. The former AFLPA president during his playing days looms as a key person of interest.

North Melbourne executive James Gallagher, who formerly was at the AFLPA, is seen as a future club CEO and would be expected to be targeted by the PA, while ex-Bomber Mark Bolton, who is now the strategy head at Essendon, is another whose name has been linked.

CATS CROWD WATCH

ROLL on up, Cats fans. The most anticipated grudge match of the season is here – let's hope the GMHBA Crowd matches the event.

Geelong hasn't been dealt a huge start to the fixture for home games this year, hosting Fremantle, Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney so far. But this Thursday night's clash with fellow top-four aspirants the Western Bulldogs – the Bailey Smith return game – shapes as the Cats' best chance to fill their new Joel Selwood Stand for the first time since round one last year.

The Cats have averaged 28,058 fans attending their GMHBA Stadium games this season. Round nine's effort of 28,407 fans on Mother's Day against the low-drawing Giants was a solid crowd in the circumstances.

Geelong players after the round nine match between Geelong and Greater Western Sydney at GMHBA Stadium, May 11, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

Last year, across nine games at GMHBA, the Cats averaged an attendance of 31,666 fans. The closest they got to filling the 40,000 capacity of the ground was when they unveiled the Selwood Stand against the Saints in round one with 39,352 there.

The overall average of the 10 games since the new stand opened is 29,862 fans, an increase from the 27,810 average during the Cats' home games in 2019, which was the last season not impacted by COVID and ground redevelopments.

The Cats are confident of their best crowd of the season by some way coming through the gates on Thursday against the Dogs in what shapes as one of the games of the season.

The stage five redevelopment of their home base saw the capacity at the ground increase to 40,000, with the new grandstand completing a world-class facility. Convincing rival supporters to make the trip down the highway for a ground that had historically been difficult to find a seat – and believing your team can pierce Geelong's on-field fortress – is a challenge on boosting visiting crowd numbers.

TOP END TEAM'S PUSH CONTINUES

FOOTBALL being back in the Top End for the past fortnight has ignited the Northern Territory's push to be the 20th AFL licence.

AFL officials and dignitaries in Darwin for Gold Coast's back-to-back home games were inundated with questions on when the NT will get the next available licence following Tasmania's entry into the competition.

The AFL Commission held its monthly meeting in Darwin last week and listened to a presentation from the head of AFL NT, Sam Gibson. Among his messages was the ambition of improving and developing the talent pathways and growing the number of Coates Talent League games the Northern Territory team plays in the country's leading under-18 competition in coming years.

A general view of TIO Stadium during the match between Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs in R9, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

The NT Taskforce spearheading the region's hope to bring an AFL team to the Top End is pushing for the concept of the club to take in the bigger picture, of helping social change and having a team for everyone in the territory.

Gold Coast's ability to play fast, tough and high scoring football at its second home has also buoyed those pushing for a team in the NT for its commercial possibilities, while the taskforce is seeing the team's ambitions including pulling down fans from neighbouring Asian countries and looking at the team from a non-traditional fan perspective.

DEVIL IN THE DETAIL

WHILE we're on the AFL Commission, its next meeting on the day of the Australian Football Hall of Fame event on June 10 is looming as a significant one.

It is being eyed as the meeting that will see the Tasmania Devils list rules put forward to the Commission.

After meeting clubs independently for their feedback over recent weeks, the AFL has been considering tweaks of the list concession package. The Devils have been pushing to have changes made as well, including taking the 'must trade' caveats off the six first-round picks the League has currently proposed to make the Devils trade for deals including players.

The Commission will have the final say but the AFL has been keen for the Devils to be competitive as soon as possible and hasn't wanted picks to be traded for more picks and a never-ending revolving door of early selections like the Giants manufactured.

But it is worth remembering that although GWS was uncompetitive for its first two seasons, the Giants won 11 games in their fourth year and made the preliminary final in their fifth. The model worked.

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