Why the Magpies’ fall is proof they can no longer stare down Father Time

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For the best part of the past two seasons, Collingwood have defiantly stared down Father Time.

But if the lessons of their premiership exit are not heeded, he will soon be tapping them on the shoulder. A fall awaits.

This is not an overreaction to a finals loss against a high-quality rival. Collingwood went for a “players over picks philosophy” at the end of last season – but it has fallen short of delivering them a 17th premiership.

For the first four months of this campaign, it worked – 10 points clear atop the ladder as recently as round 17, but as their rivals worked through their gears in the charge to the line, the ageing Magpies coughed and spluttered with three wins from their last nine games – seven of them against other finalists.

Adelaide, in the first leg of the minor premier’s straight-sets exit, is the only top-eight side they have beaten since the end of May.

Even with a rails run to the grand final, the Magpies could not find a way through against a banged-up opponent on the road for the second time in September. Their rivals have not only hauled in Collingwood, they’ve put a gap on them.

Some will point to the controversial non-free denied to Jamie Elliott in the final term, but the 29-point margin flattered the Pies, who were beaten in every department. Aside from their six-goal burst in the second term, when Dayne Zorko gifted them three and a double 50-metre penalty handed them another, they managed just five goals in the other three quarters.

Brisbane won because their list bats deeper, and they have greater faith in their youth, for which they were handsomely rewarded. Yes, winning the genetic lottery banked them the Ashcroft brothers and Jaspa Fletcher, but it also delivered the best player in the game, Nick Daicos, to Collingwood and his All-Australian brother Josh.

Compare the bookends of the game. Collingwood lost Scott Pendlebury, 37, and the league’s oldest player, in the first five minutes to a calf issue – known as “the old man’s injury”. In the final minutes of the game, Brisbane’s youngest seized their moments.

Second-season star Logan Morris landed a 50-metre pass on a handkerchief to Charlie Cameron for a goal. Ty Gallop, a teenager in his fifth game who would most likely have been sitting in the stands if not for an injury to Eric Hipwood, clunked a third contested mark to kick a third goal. And Kai Lohmann, in his fourth season, booted the sealer. The Lions had eight aged 22 or under, the Magpies just three.

Pendlebury’s early exit hurt, robbing the Pies of his on-field organisation in a game where they conceded 10 of 15 goals from stoppage, but Jarrod Berry’s injury in the second term mitigated the numerical advantage of the Lions, who were missing more of their best 23.

The Magpies topped up last year, spending significant draft and player capital, and salary cap space, to bring in Dan Houston, who had an ordinary first year in black and white. Harry Perryman came as a free agent, and if he has paid his way, it is by only a small margin. Tim Membrey has fortified the club’s forward line but is 31.

The strategy helped them to the final four but is unlikely to take them any further.

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The Magpies did take a first-round pick last year. In a weakened draft, their first pick this year is at 34. Ed Allan is their only first-round selection to have played senior football since they recruited Nick Daicos in 2021, but he cannot cement a place in the team. Four of his 13 games this year have either started or ended in the vest.

McRae has foreshadowed more of a presence in the draft this year.

“Last year I said we wanted players, not picks,” McRae said. “It won’t be that extreme this year, but there will be balance.”

Where does improvement come from in a preliminary team that fielded just three players with less than 50 games’ experience, three players aged 22 and under, and will have 10 players aged 30 or more by round one next year?

A fit Jordan De Goey gives them a powerful one-two punch in the middle with Nick Daicos. Brilliant two weeks ago, De Goey paid the price for an interrupted season with a quiet preliminary final. Bobby Hill can again be a match-winner if he can sort out his off-field issues.

But they missed out on Jack Silvagni to future-proof their defence as Jeremy Howe battles the ravages of age. In a team that has struggled to kick goals, their two leading goalkickers – Brody Mihocek and Elliott – have not signed the two-year deals tabled by the club.

Elliott, with 60 goals in a career-best season, was commanding against the Lions and will be a huge loss if he leaves. That the Pies kept wheeling out Mihocek, 32, with a ripped tendon in his toe does not say much about Dan McStay, 30, or their faith in the youth coming through. No wonder they have thrown a Hail Mary to land Charlie Curnow.

Perhaps the Magpies can turn to Geelong, the club whose average age record they broke this year. The Cats, whose preliminary final team included 12 from their 2022 premiership, have rejuvenated on the run, adding the likes of Ollie Dempsey, Shannon Neale, Connor O’Sullivan, Lawson Humphries and Oisin Mullin. Only O’Sullivan is an early pick.

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Skipper Darcy Moore remains optimistic the Magpies can remain a challenger, not despite their old list but because of it.

“I think drafting 18-and 19-year-olds, generally speaking, takes a lot of resources to develop them to be ready for AFL footy,” Moore said.

“Another thing I’ll say is that I think the way we go about it, the way we design our training program in terms of training loads, player management, structures, processes, the way we lead [and] our leadership group functions is designed for players to play longer.

“So we are clearly proof of that with guys well into their 30s playing great football for our team, so we’ll continue to be that team and be that program, but by the same token, you know, we want to be a place where young players can come and, you know, work hard and fulfil their dreams as well.

“I don’t think both are mutually exclusive – we can do both things.”

It’s time for them to start.

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