NFL predictions, picks for Week 3 slate

The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 3 slate.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Daniel Jones and the Colts are a wagon right now. As long as he’s healthy, the Colts are going to be a tough out because he does two things well: Limits negative plays and avoids turnovers. Favorites, particularly road favorites, have been covering at a rapid clip since Week 13 of last season. Road favorites are 9-5 against the spread this year and 11-3 straight up.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+1.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is going to have a really tough time if its defense continues to play like this. The Steelers have allowed 149.5 rushing yards per game to opposing teams, the fifth-worst mark in the league. They also made Justin Fields and Sam Darnold look like stars. Drake Maye is better than both of those quarterbacks right now. New England wins at home.

TAMPA BUCCANEERS (-6.5) over New York Jets

No Fields, no bet. The Bucaneers face Tyrod Taylor this week, who, in my opinion, is one of the worst backups in the NFL. I don’t suspect that the Jets will play well this weekend behind a backup quarterback, and the Buccaneers should be able to run the ball down their throats. Hello, Bucky Irving, props.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

You missed the tasty +7.5 that was available earlier this week before it was announced that Jayden Daniels was likely out due to a knee sprain. Marcus Mariota steps in as the starter, and while everyone is down on Raiders QB Geno Smith after a three-interception performance, I still see this as a buy-low spot for Pete Carroll’s group.

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The L.A. Rams improved from last year. Cooper Kupp is a shadow of his former self in Seattle, while his replacement, Davante Adams, remains an elite target for Matthew Stafford. You may remember that the Rams gave the Eagles everything they could handle in the playoffs last season, and the Rams should be looking to make a statement that they can hang with the NFC’s best.

Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

No team has looked worse than the Carolina Panthers, no surprises there. What has been surprising is the Atlanta Falcons’ defense, which has quietly improved so far this season. The Falcons have allowed 4.5 yards per play this season, the fourth-best number in the NFL. The Panthers are going to get rolled again this weekend.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) over Cincinnati Bengals

Losing JJ McCarthy for this game is legitimately a blessing in disguise for the against-the-spread bettors. Carson Wentz will back up and wipe the Bengals’ secondary clean en route to a blowout win. The Bengals back up QB Jake Browning threw three interceptions in three quarters against a bad Jaguars defense. It will get worse against a solid Vikings unit led by Brian Flores.

Houston Texans (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Speaking of those bad Jaguars, the Texans shouldn’t be underdogs in this matchup. Houston lost as a favorite to the Buccaneers, but now turns around and is an underdog to Jacksonville? In a divisional matchup, I’m happy to take the underdog here that I think has a strong advantage on defense as well as playmaking positions. My model has the Texans favored 21.68 to 20.32.

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Green Bay is the unstoppable force of the NFL so far. Ranking No. 1 in both offensive and defensive DVOA, the Packers appear to be peaking already. Losing Tucker Kraft, along with other sharp money, has moved the line to Packers -7.5. That’s good enough to get me to bite on the favorite. Buy the dip!

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-2.5) over Denver Broncos

Justin Herbert looks like an early MVP candidate, and while Bo Nix played better last week, he’s just not on that level yet. The Chargers are averaging 6.1 yards per play (tied for fifth best) this year, a full yard better than Denver. The Chargers are third in the NFL in DVOA so far this season. Even in a divisional matchup, I’ll take the favored Chargers. My model has them as five-point favorites.

New Orleans Saints (+7) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Everyone will have Seattle in survivor, but do so at your own risk. Saints QB Spencer Rattler has been playing pretty well this season. If you go by DVOA numbers, the difference between these two teams is negligible. The Saints have graded out at 21st on both offensive and defensive DVOA, while the Seahawks grade out at 14th and ninth, respectively. My model has the projected score at 19.59 to 23.07, so I’ll take the points.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3) over Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals nearly blew big leads to the Saints and Panthers to start the season. The fact that the Cardinals can’t blow out a bad Panthers team is a bad sign for their future outlook. The 49ers are elite at stopping the run, allowing 3.7 yards per rush attempt (eighth best). San Francisco takes this one.

CHICAGO BEARS (+1) over Dallas Cowboys

The Bears opened at -2 before money flooded in on the Cowboys, and they are now favored, Fanatics Sportsbook tells The Post. Perhaps the strangest betting line of the weekend, I’m willing to go down with the Ben Johnson ship.

NEW YORK GIANTS (+6.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

The line has finally gotten to a spot that I’m willing to bet. The Giants played well in Week 2 minus the penalties, and the Chiefs’ offense isn’t high-powered enough to scare me in this spot. With Juju Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown as the lone threats at receiver, Big Blue should be able to keep this one close at home.

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Monday

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-4.5) over Detroit Lions

Money is coming in on Detroit, as bettors move this line from -6 to -4.5. But let’s look back to their 2023 matchup when Baltimore embarrassed the Lions 38-6. Some matchups are just too good for them. Jared Goff vs. Lamar Jackson is not the one that the Lions want. Pro Football Focus has the Ravens run defense graded the eighth-best unit in the NFL, not exactly the way the Lions want to win.

LAST WEEK: 5-9

This season: 10-17

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.

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