Daicos, Smith, Dawson or a roughie? Your Brownlow mega-guide – and who the experts think will take home Charlie

Proven vote-winner. Best player in the comp. A machine. Umps love him.

The Age’s expert tipsters have overwhelmingly backed Nick Daicos to win his first Brownlow Medal on Monday night, showering the Collingwood marvel with praise in the process.

Ironically, they accept that the 22-year-old probably had a better season last year, when he polled 38 votes but was beaten by Patrick Cripps. But last year’s count was ridiculous, says Michael Gleeson, who forecasts that Daicos could tally in the low 20s and still win the medal in 2025.

Seven of our 12 experts tip Daicos and, of the five who didn’t, four have him coming second.

As always, there are caveats. Chief football writer Jake Niall predicts Daicos will be edged out by Crows captain Jordan Dawson because the latter stood out in a team lacking midfield stars.

Sam McClure picks Gold Coast skipper Noah Anderson, who catches the eye with his inside/outside dominance and is tipped to poll well in games the Suns won. But will Anderson’s old Carey Grammar buddy Matt Rowell steal votes from him?

All eyes, too, will be on Geelong’s Bailey Smith, and not only to see who his plus one is. Age experts predict the internet will break if Smith appears on the red carpet with his rumoured new squeeze, fitness influencer Tammy Hembrow. Sorry, Age experts predict Smith will finish in the top three.

And what about Nasiah the messiah? Expect St Kilda’s recommitted star Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to come home like a steam strain. Champion Data has him earning the three votes in three of the last eight rounds, and polling in three others. It promises to make for a thrilling finish to the count.

Scroll through our mega-guide to see how the main contenders will poll, round by round. (We’ve collated their Age footballer of the year votes, the coaches’ votes and Champion Data projections.)

And if you’re looking for a roughie, look through our experts’ tips. Zach Merrett, anyone? McClure thinks so, and that could be awkward.

Here are the latest odds

Nick Daicos $2.50

Bailey Smith $5.00

Jordan Dawson $6.50

Noah Anderson $7.00

Matt Rowell $13.00

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $51.00

Caleb Serong $67.00

Tom Green $67.00

Hugh McCluggage $81.00

Marcus Bontempelli $101.00

(Via Sportsbet, as of Thursday morning.)

The leading contenders, round by round

Dawson won The Age footballer of the year award and led Adelaide’s stunning rise from 15th to the minor premiership (before a straight sets finals exit). He earned maximum coaches’ votes in five matches and will be tough to beat.

Daicos is the popular choice among Age experts. Champion Data has him best on ground in nine matches. That’s 27 votes right there. Catch him if you can.

Anderson powered Gold Coast to September for the first time. He’ll compete with Rowell for maximum votes in plenty of matches.

It’s impossible to look away when Smith is in action, on and off the field. He shared the AFL coaches’ gong with Anderson and made the All-Australian team in his first year at the Cats. “Bazlenka” for the Brownlow?

Wanganeen-Milera, the AFL’s first $2 million man, will make the leaders sweat when he surges in the final rounds. Party at the Espy if he wins it.

Caleb Serong started strongly but had to cope with taggers for much of the season. However, recent history shows the Fremantle midfielder polls well and should be in the mix.

What our experts are saying

Jake Niall

1. Jordan Dawson

2. Nick Daicos

Roughie: Jeremy Cameron

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Dawson stood out in a team without midfield star power. Daicos is a machine and will get close again, while Anderson and Rowell will take votes from each other.

Caroline Wilson

1. Nick Daicos

2. Noah Anderson

Roughie: Jack Gunston

Daicos has been a proven vote-winner in his short but brilliant career. He stood out this season when Collingwood were flying and carried the Magpies during their slump. A proven champion will prevail in a tight field.

Michael Gleeson

1. Nick Daicos

2. Jordan Dawson

Roughie: Jai Newcombe

Daicos wasn’t as good as last year, but last year was ridiculous. He can poll two thirds of the votes he did in 2024 and still win.

Jon Pierik

1. Nick Daicos

2. Jordan Dawson

Roughie: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

Daicos has had another superb season; his ball use is second to none. This year he shouldn’t have to worry about being beaten in a record count. Dawson has been central to the Crows’ rise, while Wanganeen-Milera is an All-Australian and should poll strongly, particularly late.

Libby Birch

1. Jordan Dawson

2. Bailey Smith

Roughie: Ed Richards

A huge year for Adelaide and Dawson, who was named in the All-Australian side and voted AFLPA captain of the year after leading the Crows to the minor premiership. He’s relentless workhorse in the middle and a composed leader – what more could you ask from him? Smith has been a flashy, creative spark who’s added plenty to Geelong. Meanwhile, Ed Richards enjoyed a genuine breakout year, stepping up in the midfield – especially when “the Bont” was sidelined.

Sam McClure

1. Noah Anderson

2. Nick Daicos

Roughie: Zach Merrett

Daicos is clearly the best player in the comp and probably should win it, but Brownlow counts can be strange affairs. Anderson catches the eye with his inside/outside dominance and is sure to poll well in any game Gold Coast won.

Bob Murphy

1. Bailey Smith

2. Nick Daicos

Roughie: Ed Richards

Dashing runs, new kit, long hair and a bright headband point to Smith. Oh, and the Cats win heaps of games.

Calum Jaspan

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1. Nick Daicos

2. Noah Anderson

Roughie: Max Holmes

It’s a toss-up between Anderson and Daicos, but Daicos seems like a safe choice. The umpires love him and he’s probably earned one.

Peter Ryan

1. Nick Daicos

2. Jordan Dawson

Roughie: Max Holmes

Daicos didn’t have as good a season as he did last year but he just polls votes and will take catching. Dawson is consistently the best player in the top-of-the-ladder team, while umpires spent last season understanding how good Max Holmes is, and will reward him with votes.

Andrew Wu

1. Nick Daicos

2. Matt Rowell

Roughie: Jeremy Cameron

Daicos is a proven vote-getter who will poll in plenty of games. Rowell finished seventh last year when he didn’t have an outside game and Gold Coast were battlers. With 14 bags of four or more goals, Jeremy Cameron can sneak into the top 10 at ridiculous odds.

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