Expert analysis of the top 30 horses and their chances

Arapaho (FR)

9yoG, 56.5kg

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 48: 10-6-4

Last start: 15th of 18, group 1 The Metropolitan (2816m)

Russell says: A grand old stager who is no stranger to the staying distance, having won this year’s Sydney Cup over 3200m. But he will be better suited by wet ground, so needs a Cup week deluge to be any chance. Can see colourful trainer Bjorn Baker pulling out the rain dance music about 5pm on Sunday.

Vauban (FR)

8yoG, 56.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 28: 9-5-4

Last start: 13th of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Russell says: Moved to an Australian stable late last year after growing up in Ireland, so probably should be working on a construction site or an outback pub before being granted a permanent visa. Has flopped twice in the past two Cups. Not sure he can turn it around.

Chevalier Rose (JPN)

8yoH, 55.5kg

Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 35: 5-5-2

Last start: 14th of 16, group 2 Sapporo Kinen Stakes (2210m)

Russell says: Jockey Damian Lane connects with Japanese horses like AirPods to an iPhone, and Chevalier Rose is from the same stable as 2019 Caulfield Cup winner Mer De Glace. But this fella is not a regular winner and would have preferred a lead-up run. Will also need a firm track.

Presage Nocturne (IRE)

6yoH, 55.5kg

Trainer: Alessandro Botti

Jockey: Stephane Pasquier

Career: 17: 5-5-3

Last start: Fourth of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Russell says: An Irish-bred horse with an Italian trainer and a French jockey. How exotic is that? Impressive lineage aside, his run in the Caulfield Cup was a belter and a perfect Melbourne Cup tune-up. Good French form, good lead-up form. Massive top-three chance.

Middle Earth (GB)

6yoG, 54.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Career: 17: 5-2-2

Last start: Third of nine, group 3 JRA Cup (2040m)

Russell says: Was bought by Australian connections from the UK at the end of last year, and arrived here with solid group 2 staying form, but hasn’t been able to fulfil expectations. Trainer Ciaron Maher was disappointed in his Caulfield Cup run, so sent him around in the JRA Cup a week later. Might need another year.

Meydaan (IRE)

5yoG, 54kg

Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 14: 2-2-2

Last start: Ninth of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Russell says: On face value, the English stayer was entitled to finish closer in the Caulfield Cup after starting second favourite, but put that down to pilot error. Something went seriously amiss with Andrea Atzeni’s GPS. Love the replacement booking of “JMac” for the Cup, who rarely gets lost, and reckon he can win.

Land Legend (FR)

6yoG, 53.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Joao Moreira/TBC

Career: 22: 3-2-2

Last start: Last of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Russell says: Too bad to be true in the Caulfield Cup when many thought he could be a major player in the staying races this spring. Can’t have him on that run.

Smokin Romans (NZ)

9yoG, 53.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Melham/TBC

Career: 53: 11-9-3

Last start: Eighth of 11, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)

Russell says: A veteran galloper who seems to have been around longer than the metric system. He did a great job of winning the Warrnambool Cup for his connections in March. That’s his limit. Can’t see him figuring over 3200m at Flemington in November.

Absurde (FR)

5yoG, 53.5kg

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 28: 7-5-5

Last start: Seventh of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Russell says: If you want to learn the art of resilience, speak to punters who have backed this Irish-trained gelding in the past two Melbourne Cups and the recent Caulfield Cup. They keep tipping him, and he keeps getting beat. Still, they will be saying he’s worth another chance. Again. Just in case.

Flatten The Curve (FR)

7yoG, 53.5kg

Trainer: Henk Grewe

Jockey: Thore Hammer-Hansen

Career: 54: 11-10-5

Last start: First of six, Gold Cup Invitational, Kentucky (3319m)

Russell says: Has grown wings since joining Henke Grewe last year, winning all of his starts on turf and suffering his only loss for the German trainer on an unsuitable dirt track behind Parchment Party in the US. He’s a gelding on the up, albeit a seven-year-old, and 53.5kg is the right weight. Would have preferred a lead-up run in Australia.

Half Yours

5yoG, 53kg

Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Career: 14: 7-3-0

Last start: First of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Russell says: Usually with Aussie-bred Caulfield Cup winners the worry is that they might not get the extra 800m of a Melbourne Cup. Plus he has been allotted an extra 2kg by the handicapper as a penalty for the Caulfield win. But forget all that. He only has 53kg and is bred to be a marathon runner. Can win.

Onesmoothoperator (US)

8yoG, 53kg

Trainer: Brian Ellison

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Career: 46: 6-11-6

Last start: First of 11, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)

Russell says: A UK runner who grows another leg when he lands in Australia. Won last year’s Geelong Cup in a canter and cruised to victory in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup on Friday night, but did not win a race in between. Top 10 in the Cup might be his limit.

More Felons (IRE)

7yoG, 53kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 21: 5-3-0

Last start: Fourth of 10, group 3 St Leger Stakes, Randwick (2600m)

Russell says: Finished 12th in last year’s Melbourne Cup and does not seem to be going any better this year. Is rated a 50-1 chance by the bookies, and on its last-start fourth that would seem to be unders. Can’t see him in top 10.

Changingoftheguard (IRE)

7yoG, 53kg

Trainer: Kris Lees

Jockey: Tim Clark

Career: 17: 4-3-2

Last start: Sixth of eight, group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)

Russell says: A former Epsom Derby runner and would have been bought out to Australia by owner Lloyd Williams with the view of winning a Melbourne Cup. But he has lost the plot in his past two starts, and appears to have little chance. In the race for last place.

Furthur (IRE)

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4yoH, 52kg

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 8: 2-2-2

Last start: Sixth of seven, group 1 St Leger Stakes, Doncaster (2916m)

Russell says: Bought by racing commentator and Aussie syndicator Lizzie Jelfs and has the right age and weight profile to win the Cup – in the same mode as the 2018 winner Cross Counter. If the jungle drums start beating about his chances in coming weeks, heed their call.

Parchment Party (US)

5yoH, 52kg

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Johnny Velazquez

Career: 11: 4-1-1

Last start: First of six, Birdstone Stakes, Saratoga (2816m)

Russell says: An absolute head-scratcher. First American-trained horse to run in the Cup, so it’s tough to line up his form. But he is a dirt-track specialist, and has never won on turf. That’s like asking a major league baseball player to open the batting at Test cricket level. For that reason, not keen.

Goodie Two Shoes (IRE)

7yoM (mare), 51.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Career: 26: 13-0-7

Last start: Third of eight, group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes, Goodwood (2816m)

Russell says: Has a whiff of an Irish sting about it, this runner. A former hurdler who has been running well in group company in the UK since converting to the flat. Gets into the Cup with a featherweight (51.5kg) and is owned by legendary bookie and big-time Irish businessman JP McManus, who would love a new trophy for the cabinet. Would have preferred a local jockey, but if the stable backs it on the day, follow suit. Currently 50-1.

River Of Stars (IRE)

7yoM, 51.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Beau Mertens/TBC

Career: 21: 4-6-4

Last start: Second of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Russell says: A Yulong stablemate of Cox Plate winner Via Sistina who was brought to Australia boasting group 1 form lines in France. She finished third in this year’s Sydney Cup and second in the Caulfield Cup, suggesting she is a serious player.

Athabascan (FR)

7yoG, 51.5kg

Trainer: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 39: 4-6-4

Last start: Second of 11, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)

Russell says: Part of the B-grade set who is always thereabouts without being able to land a killer blow. Can’t see him finishing in the top 10. Has an interesting name, though – which apparently refers to the languages spoken by select groups of Indigenous Northern Americans.

Valiant King (GB)

6yoG, 51kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 19: 2-3-3

Last start: Third of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

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Russell says: An Irish import who has exploded out of the ground this spring after taking time to settle in. Finished 13th in last year’s Cup, but wasn’t suited by a wide barrier and slow tempo. Up to his eyeballs in the race this year, following a win in the group 3 Bart Cummings (2520m) and a great Caulfield Cup run.

Torranzino

6yoG, 51kg

Trainer: Paul Preusker

Jockey: Celine Gaudray

Career: 33: 6-7-2

Last start: First of eight, group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)

Russell says: Looming as the fairytale story of this year’s race. A Kiwi-bred gelding trained by an expert horseman from the bush and ridden by an up-and-coming female jockey. Sound familiar? It’s been 10 years since we’ve read this script. Tough second behind Valiant King in the Bart Cummings and a strong Geelong Cup win.

Royal Supremacy (IRE)

5yoG, 51kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Career: 14: 5-3-2

Last start: Fifth of 18, group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)

Russell says: Before last year, no one thought singing jockey Robbie Dolan would ride in a Melbourne Cup, let alone win it. Imagine if former The Voice contestant does it again? It’s not beyond the realms of possibility, Royal Supremacy has superior lead-up form this year compared to last year’s victor Knight’s Choice.

27. Post Impressionist (IRE)

7yoG, 51kg

Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman

Jockey: TBC

Career: 23: 4-3-2

Last start: Seventh of 11, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)

Russell says: Owned by Lloyd Williams and James Packer – two of the great family names in Australian turf history. Not sure the horse can live up to the ownership hype. Has not won since March last year and has been flat in between.

28. Scary (NZ)

4yoH, 51kg

Trainer: Emma-Lee & David Browne

Jockey: TBC

Career: 13: 1-3-2

Last start: Third of 11, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)

Russell says: Could be this year’s bolter if he gets a start. He ran second in last year’s VRC Derby behind Goldrush Guru and has been building up to something special this campaign. A tough last-start third in the Gold Cup behind Onesmoothoperator puts him in the mix.

29. Trav (NZ)

6yoG 51kg

Trainer: Raymond Connors

Jockey: TBC

Career: 30: 6-1-0

Last start: Ninth of 11, group 2 MV Gold Cup (2500m)

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Russell says: A beautiful backstory – bred, owned and trained by a New Zealand dairy farmer. He is an old-fashioned stayer who has found his opposition too slick in his past two starts in Australia. Needs a heavy track to be any hope.

30. Etna Rosso (IRE)

6yoG 51kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: TBC

Career: 13: 1-3-2

Last start: Second of 10, group 3 St Leger Stakes, Randwick (2600m)

Russell says: A lightly raced stayer who has only won once in 13 starts and needs a few scratchings to make the field. Having said that, if he were to get a start, he would not be the worst runner in the Cup.

The remaining 10 runners entered for this year’s Cup: Grand Pierro, Whisky On The Hill, Interpretation, Don Diego De Vega, Sayedaty Sadaty, Fernao, Golden Snap, Quietness, So You Are, Star Of India.

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