Aussies optimistic Cummins will be fit for Ashes opener

Australia are optimistic Pat Cummins will be fit for the Ashes opener, with selectors open to playing the Test skipper in Perth after a four-month break between matches if need be.

There are still 80 days until the first ball of the men's Test summer is bowled, but Cummins now has one eye on the calendar after it was revealed he had picked up a low-level back injury following the West Indies Test series in July.

The 32-year-old has been diagnosed with lumbar bone stress in his lower back, a typical fast bowler's reaction to a high workload.

While it is not a dreaded stress fracture, of which Cummins suffered several during his teens and early-twenties, the fact his back has flared up after sending down fewer than 100 overs in four Tests in the UK and the Caribbean could be cause for concern.

By way of comparison, Cummins bowled himself 167 overs in five Tests against India last summer.

Selection chief George Bailey said team officials had a "full expectation that Pat will be right to go come that first Test" against England and that his Ashes preparation will not change significantly given he was already in a planned "de-load" period.

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But Cummins, and the medicos managing him, must now strike a careful balance between giving his back time to recover from a rare injury setback and dialling up his bowling workloads to be ready for a taxing five-Test series against Australia’s old enemy.

Cummins has erred on the side of being underdone for big Test series in recent times, to considerable success given he has missed just two Tests since taking over as captain four years ago.

The paceman would have ideally played some of the white-ball games against India that precede the Test series, mirroring how he has tuned up for recent home summers, but he has now been ruled out of those.

The door is open for him to feature in the Sheffield Shield for New South Wales in October or November, but Bailey suggested that was not a necessity.

"He's certainly one … that has entered summers at different stages without a great amount of match balls at different times," Bailey told reporters today.

"He's used one-day cricket to build up. Just given how far out we are, there's the potential for some Shield cricket in the lead up. There's still options there.

"If it got to the stage where they were taken off the table, I still think that we'd be comfortable with Pat's experience and skill level.

"This probably slows him down from when he actually commences bowling again, but in terms of the gym work and getting on top of a lot of those other physical things that he likes to get on top of before big series, I'm pretty confident that'll work out."

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Bailey admitted Australia's four main seamers – Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland – have been more durable than even their own internal planning has accounted for.

Since Boland's debut in the 2021-22 Ashes, Australia have only played one Test without at least three of that quartet in their XI.

The prospect of Australia fielding two allrounders in their XI this summer in Cameron Green, who Bailey said was on track to be bowling in time for Perth, and Beau Webster could lighten the main seamers' loads further this summer.

But the uncertainty over Cummins, the youngest of an ageing seam attack, means Australia are again reckoning with the lower ends of their pace depth charts.

Jhye Richardson is the highest rated seam prospect outside the current Test group but has only recently resumed bowling after a third operation on his right shoulder, while fellow Western Australian Lance Morris is out for the summer due to back surgery.

Brendan Doggett, Sean Abbott and Michael Neser are others who have been on the Test side's fringes and could come into contention against England, particularly during the back-end of the series when there are minimal breaks between the final three Tests.

Bailey said the prospect of those fringe bowlers playing had "been part of our planning for the last two or three years" only for Cummins and co. to continually push through Test series.

"Then when they have managed to get through all five (Tests), it's a hats off to them and it's a hats off to the physical performance team to get them through it," Bailey said.

"But certainly in terms of our planning and not knowing how deep each Test will go, how much bowling will be required, it's always part of the planning across the summer that you may need to go deeper than your first-choice three or four."

2025-26 NRMA Insurance Men's Ashes

First Test: November 21-25, Perth Stadium, 1.30pm AEDT

Second Test: December 4-8, The Gabba, Brisbane (D/N), 3.30pm AEDT

Third Test: December 17-21: Adelaide Oval, 11am AEDT

Fourth Test: December 26-30: MCG, Melbourne, 10.30am AEDT

Fifth Test: January 4-8: SCG, Sydney, 10.30am AEDT

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