Swans have fallen in a ‘deep hole’ but vow to ‘be back’. They must make these moves to bounce

'One of the great falls from grace' | 02:52

The Sydney Swans have fallen into a “deep hole.” It might just be too deep for them to dig themselves out of in the interim as you can all but put a line through their 2025 campaign.

As such, everything they do from now should be geared towards setting up for 2026.

Dean Cox has been instantly thrown into the baptism of fire in one of the great fall from graces in recent memory after last year’s grand final run as minor premiers in John Longmire’s final season as coach.

FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports, is the only place to watch every match of every round in the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE in 4K, with no ad-breaks during play. New to Kayo? Get your first month for just $1. Limited-time offer.

Injuries to key stars including Errol Gulden and Tom Papley has clearly played a role in their demise, but this goes beyond that.

This is a club that just doesn’t have the same spunk and shine as last year — when they were the best team in the competition up until that horror grand final day.

It doesn’t get much worse than Sydney getting demolished by Adelaide at home in the club’s 20-year reunion game from its 2005 premiership, then getting called a ‘rabble’ by Wayne Milera.

“It’s all of it — mechanics, intangibles and personnel — and personnel they can least afford to miss,” Demons legend Garry Lyon said of Sydney on Fox Footy’s AFL 360.

“The rest of it has just dropped away. The intangibles, the spirit, the commitment, the heart.

“Dean Cox’s role in all of this will be questioned and that’s what happens when you’re sitting in the big chair. ‘Coxy’ would be feeling that right now. He’s got to front up and find a way.

Coach Dean Cox during the AFL Round 1 match between the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions at the SCG on March 15, 2025. Photo by Phil Hillyard (Image Supplied for Editorial Use only - NO ON SALES - copyright Phil Hillyard ) Source: News Corp Australia

“We love this footy club and we’ve all admired them. But they are in a deep hole. It was embarrassing and now it’s up to them to do something about it.”

The drop off is stark.

This time last year Sydney was sitting on top of the ladder at 11-1. They didn’t drop another game until Round 16.

They currently sit 14th at 4-8 ...

The rapid decline in stats is also telling. The Swans’ punish game has drastically fallen away, dropping in intercept to score (1st in 2024 to 10th in 2025), clearance to score (2nd to 18th) and score per inside 50 (1st to 17th).

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MAY 31: Isaac Heeney of the Swans and James Rowbottom of the Swans lead the team out during the round 12 AFL match between Sydney Swans and Adelaide Crows at Sydney Cricket Ground, on May 31, 2025, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images) Source: Getty Images

From an individuals perspective, Jake Lloyd (-123), James Rowbottom (-78), Oliver Florent (-64), James Jordon (-52), Dane Rampe (-45), Isaac Heeney (-37), Matt Roberts (-26) and Will Hayward (-21) are among the Swans to have suffered the biggest drop in AFL Player Ratings.

Of course, Sydney did slide from its epic early-season heights in the second half of the 2024 campaign, dropping five of its last nine games in the lead into finals.

So who’s the real Swans?

While they regrouped in last year’s finals series with wins over GWS and Port Adelaide to qualify for the decider, Lions champion Jonathan Brown believes Sydney’s first-half run in 2025 was an aberration.

“The 13-1 Sydney Swans at about the halfway mark of last year wasn’t the real Sydney Swans,” Brown said on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.

“Since then they’re 10-13. I think they’re closer to the 10-13 than the 13-1.

“Especially when you couple in the loss of Errol Gulden and Tom Papley.

“I actually think we over-estimated them. I thought it was false form, looking back. I think some people there may have questioned where they were at this year.”

As grim as it’s been, Swans chairman Andrew Pridham has vowed the club will “be back.”

Pridham wouldn't blame injuries, their coaching hangover or that disaster grand final performance as reasons for the Swans’ demise and had full faith in club “calmly” steer itself back in the right direction.

“I am disappointed, I am frustrated but I am not alarmed,” Pridham said in a statement to Herald Sun’s Jon Ralph on Fox Footy.

“We have to work through it calmly and we will. We have put in a couple of disappointing and sub-par performances and we can’t shy away from that.

“We will work through it calmly. We will be back.”

GWS veteran Callan Ward suffers torn ACL | 02:32

SO WHAT MOVES DO THEY MAKE FROM HERE TO SET UP FOR 2026?

Again, you can all but write off 2025.

If Sydney can overcome Richmond at the MCG this weekend then regroup at its bye at 5-8, you never know.

But they effectively need to go 8-3 in their final 11 games, which is a tall task given where they’re at.

The greater priority should be setting up this club to go again in 2026 and beyond.

That starts with personnel.

Any of their injured players — where there’s a risk of re-injury or generally compromising their long-term outlook by returning to try and salvage an already lost season — should be put on ice.

While it’d also be beneficial to try and get their best team on the park at some point to build reps, that shouldn’t come at the expense of the futures of the likes of Errol Gulden and Logan McDonald, who already suffered a setback in his return via the VFL.

Beyond that, Cox, as he already has, should continue to blood as much emerging talent as possible and work out which of his troops are going to be mainstays in the future.

We’ve already seen the likes of Sam Wicks, Caiden Cleary, Corey Warner, Riley Bice and Angus Sheldrick get greater opportunities in 2025.

Sydney's Corey Warner celebrates kicking a goal during the AFL Round 8 Sydney Derby XXX between the Sydney Swans and GWS Giants at the SCG on May 4, 2025. Photo by Phil Hillyard (Image Supplied for Editorial Use only - NO ON SALES - copyright Phil Hillyard ) Source: News Corp Australia

The more games these players get, the better served Sydney will be when it eventually gets it full complement of stars available while building valuable depth.

On the other side of the coin, it also means making hard calls on veterans who won’t be part of the future.

This isn’t to suggest Sydney should go into a soft rebuild and blindly drop or experienced players, but the club needs to find the right balance between setting up players to succeed and building winning habits, with developing its next wave.

For example, the likes of Dane Rampe, 35, Joel Hamling, 32, Robbie Fox, 32, and Jake Lloyd, 31, and are all out of contract and well past the other side of 30.

Peter Ladhams and Aaron Francis, both 27, also don’t have deals beyond this year and are getting on.

Hard to see all of them getting new contracts, so it’s important to work out which of those names can play a role in 2026.

Fast forwarding to season’s end, the most important thing to address from a list management perspective (after crucially retaining Chad Warner’s signature earlier this year) is shoring up their key position stocks, most notably in defence.

For you could talk yourself into Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey developing into a strong key forward partnership, having booted a combined 80 goals last year.

Unless there’s a cheap deal for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to be had, if Sydney can convince itself it can turn around his off-field issues away from the Melbourne bubble.

But from a sheer personnel standpoint, their defence is greater cause for concern, particularly when you consider Rampe is coming towards the end of his career.

They should be eyeing uncontracted players like Jack Silvagni and Leek Aleer, while Zaine Cordy and Jai Serong are also on expiring deals as potential budget options.

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MAY 31: Leek Aleer of the Giants warms up prior to the round 12 AFL match between Greater Western Sydney Giants and Richmond Tigers at ENGIE Stadium, on May 31, 2025, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/AFL Photos/via Getty Images) Source: Getty Images

Or could the likes of Jack Buckley, Jordon Butts, Jedd Busslinger, Jake Kolodjashnij and James Blanck be gettable?

They won’t solve all their defensive issues, even if they’ve steadily improved in intercept to score (ranked 8th), clearance to score (sixth) and score per inside 50 (sixth), but they clearly need another mature body in defence to succeed Rampe.

Hanging over everything is Cox further integrating his game plan, which simply might be taking longer than hoped. That or they might need to strip it back or revert to things that have worked in the past.

There will also be questions of the team that surrounds Cox that comes with that at season’s end.

The 12-game senior coach is also still finding his own identity in the top job, as much as his side is. Cox remains as well prepared for the task ahead, while this challenging start to his career may ultimately shape him in a positive way.

Above anything, you just want to see the Swans playing with the same excitement and charm that made them so dominant in 2024, and players — both new faces and old — show genuine belief they can produce that.

If last off-season was a transitional period at Sydney with an element of trying to preserve the parts that helped it get to a grand final, next summer should be a recalibration.

For unlike several months ago, this team is now a ways off flag contention and in need of a new direction.

Sydney has to evolve if it’s to avenge those grand final demons.

Click here to read article