Lions vs. Ravens Week 3 preview: Three key statistics

Both the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens got the Week 2 “mouthwash” games they needed, rinsing out bitter Week 1 losses with statement wins against lesser divisional foes. Detroit (52–21 over Chicago) and Baltimore (41–17 over Cleveland) were the league’s top two scoring teams and posted the largest margins of victory last week.

This matchup was circled as soon as the schedule dropped. Lions fans still remember Justin Tucker’s controversial game-winning dagger in 2021, and they also can’t shake the 38–6 drubbing two seasons ago. Detroit now has a chance at revenge against a perennial AFC heavyweight.

With Joe Flacco (Browns) and Jake Browning (Bengals) up next on the Lions’ AFC North docket (in Weeks 4 and 5), a primetime road win would help erase memories of Green Bay’s Week 1 dominance and reinforce the Lions’ Super Bowl credentials despite coordinator changes. Dan Campbell’s group will be rested and ready. Here are three statistical matchups that will define Monday night in Baltimore.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference.

Action Jackson — over the middle

Detroit’s night starts and ends with containing the league’s highest-scoring offense (40.5 ppg) under Lamar Jackson. Kelvin Sheppard’s defense must get off the field consistently to give Jared Goff and company enough possessions.

A vulnerable area so far: passes between the numbers

2024 Lions defense over the middle: top five in passer rating allowed, yards per play, EPA per play, and success rate.

2025 through two weeks: 10.7 yards per play allowed (28th), third-worst EPA per dropback (-0.70), and a league-high 30.4% explosive-play rate on just 23 attempts.

That’s dangerous against a Ravens attack built to feast over the middle:

2024 Ravens over the middle: 1st in passer rating (126.1), tied-3rd in yards/play (9.4), 6th in success rate (58.8%), 2nd in EPA/dropback (0.49).

2025 so far: outside the top 10, including 2nd-to-last in success rate (39.1%), but you can bet they’ll try to get back to that comfort zone Monday night.

Zay Flowers (39 catches, 614 yards between the numbers in 2024) and Rashod Bateman (26 for 392) will test Detroit’s middle of the field defense. Their linebackers and safeties will attempt to erase space when available. But it will really come down to corners Terrion Arnold, D.J. Reed, and Amik Robertson, who will also be stressed on over routes, especially when Detroit sends blitzes.

Weak (and weary) Ravens’ run defense

During the 2024 season, the Ravens had one of the most stout run defensive units. They return a majority of their front-even, aside from the retirement of reliable veteran nose tackle Michael Pierce and departure of LB Malik Harrison (started last nine games of season).

Baltimore fielded an elite run defense last year:

1st in yards per rush (3.6)

Fewest 10+ yard runs allowed (25)

2nd in EPA per rush (-0.16)

2nd in yards after contact (2.50)

The Ravens’ run defense was pivotal for them evolving into the best defense in football over the second half of the season, and a reason why they were one of the definitive AFC favorites to start the season. There are very few holes on the team or areas to exploit.

Through two weeks of the season, with a little less depth on the interior defensive line and rookie Teddye Buchanan starting next to Roquan Smith, the run defense has been a little more susceptible to opponents’ rushing attacks

Dead last in opponent rushing success rate (60.4%)

18th in yards before contact per attempt (1.23)

16th in yards after contact allowed per attempt (3.07)

Things don’t look any better for the Ravens as they’ll be more short-handed on the front-seven with both defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike and edge defender Kyle Van Noy questionable after not practicing all week.

Detroit still ranks just 28th in run success rate (40.4%), but made strides against Chicago. Another vulnerable Ravens performance could be exactly what the Lions need to get their ground game fully on track. Winning on the ground—while playing keep away from Lamar Jackson—would go a long way in silencing M&T Bank Stadium.

Wiggin’ out (and the right-side mismatch)

Second-year CB Nate Wiggins has quickly become a foundational piece in Baltimore’s secondary, freeing Marlon Humphrey to handle the slot and Kyle Hamilton to roam at safety. But Wiggins is nursing a hamstring injury from last week.

The real soft spot may be opposite him. Baltimore keeps its cornerbacks mostly static; Wiggins plays left corner on nearly 90% of snaps. Veterans Chidobe Awuzie and Jaire Alexander have rotated at “right” corner with mixed results.

Through two games, the Ravens’ “right” corner side has allowed:

2nd-most passing yards to that area (375)

8.7 yards/play (27th) and a 23.3% explosive-play rate (28th)

John Morton will surely scheme ways to isolate that side with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Detroit’s deep stable of pass-catchers. Watch for condensed formations and motion designed to force matchups away from Wiggins.

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