Nowhere to nightmare: Why GF powerhouses will only get stronger as trade coups loom

The fans of 16 AFL clubs, at some stage on Saturday, will surely feel a sense of envy during the Geelong-Brisbane Grand Final.

But by the end of November, jealousy will almost certainly turn to frustration.

For both the Cats and Lions seem destined to add more talent and firepower to their respective lists this off-season and, therefore, extend their premiership windows.

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That’s a hard prospect for many to fathom, considering Geelong and Brisbane have arguably been the two best and most reliable teams of 2025. Not only that, Saturday’s Grand Final will decide the greatest club of the past 25 years, as both the Cats and Lions have won a league-high four premierships each since 2000.

And yet both are about to get better.

‘IMPOSSIBLE TO IMAGINE’: REBUILDING FROM ROCK-BOTTOM

Although the prospect of the two clubs being perennial contenders would’ve been hard to imagine for their respective fanbases at different stages over the past two decades.

Between 1998 and 2003, the Cats only made the finals once – and they were knocked out in the first week by eighth-placed Hawthorn.

Now, as triple premiership forward Cameron Mooney, they’re “one of the biggest destination clubs in the AFL”, after bringing in the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Jeremy Cameron and Bailey Smith.

“It just shows where the club is at,” triple premiership forward Cameron Mooney told foxfooty.com.au. “I came down to the club in 2000 and no one wanted to go to Geelong. We were the laughing stock down the road from Melbourne, the old ‘Handbaggers’.

“I say this all the time, it is the greatest place to bring up a young family. You’re just out of the Melbourne hub, but you still get that Melbourne feel. Geelong is a beautiful place, if you want to live coastal or farmland, it’s 20 minutes away from the club. A traffic jam will cost you six or seven minutes, nor an hour and six or seven minutes, as it does in Melbourne.”

While the Cats struggled during that 1998-2003 period, the Lions thrived, culminating in three straight flags between 2001 and 2003.

But after losing the 2004 Grand Final, the Lions endured a lengthy period of misery, missing finals in 13 of the next 14 seasons. In every season between 2014 and 2018, the Lions finished in the bottom four.

In the space of one month in 2013, the core of two consecutive Lions draft hauls had essentially been wiped out.

A homesick Lions quintet of Billy Longer (St Kilda), Jared Polec (Port Adelaide), Sam Docherty (Carlton), Elliot Yeo (West Coast) and Patrick Karnezis (Collingwood) all returned to their home states in the last two days of the trade period. The group would quickly become known as ‘The Go-Home Five’.

But with patience, some defining off-field calls and a shrewd list strategy that’s paid big dividends, the Lions are a successful team – and players want to come to them, years after recruiting the likes of Charlie Cameron, Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley.

“It’s almost impossible to imagine (considering the club’s state in the 2010s),” triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown told foxfooty.com.au.

“Credit to a lot of people. Obviously, ‘Fages’ (Chris Fagan) has done an amazing job and Justin Leppitsch before that when he started playing the youngsters. Greg Swann showed amazing leadership for the club, Andrew Wellington the chairman and Danny Daly.

“The pillars of your club in terms of your off-field leadership need to be really strong and really good characters. It’s a good lesson for all clubs. That is why the Lions have been able to be successful – and it’s translated onto the field. It doesn’t work the other way round.”

‘LOOK OUT’: THE TRADE AND DRAFT TARGETS

Both Geelong and Brisbane are set to be significant players during the AFL exchange period.

The Cats, who mightn’t play veteran No.1 ruck Rhys Stanley on Saturday, are determined to acquire highly-rated contracted Saints ruck Rowan Marshall, who’s weighing up his future amid St Kilda’s free agency play for Rowan Marshall.

They’re also being tipped to land Hawthorn best and fairest winner James Worpel, while contracted dual Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow is keen to join the Cats – albeit a Carlton-Geelong trade will be hard to strike.

And in 12 months’ time, they’re expected to be in the race to sign Port Adelaide superstar Zak Butters when his deal expires.

Mooney is keen to see Marshall land at the Cats – “if they get Rowan Marshall, look out” – but warned against going all-in for Curnow.

“I hope they wouldn’t lose Shannon Neale to get Charlie Curnow, that would be my only thing. We’ve seen in finals three tall forwards don’t work,” he said.

“Charlie obviously has family and business things down that way. But who would know.“

Brisbane, meanwhile, is set to sign two star free agents: Essendon ruck Sam Draper and West Coast forward Oscar Allen. The Lions had also been strongly linked to Bombers best and fairest winner Jordan Ridley before he declared he wanted to honour his contact and remain at the club.

But arguably the biggest Brisbane inclusion will come via November’s draft, with the club to undoubtedly match an inevitable top-five bid on its top academy prospect Daniel Annable – a clean, courageous, strong-bodied and well-balanced on-baller who has excellent stoppage craft and strong transition work ethic.

So highly rated and touted is Annable, who averaged 21.3 disposals, 4.9 inside 50s and 4.3 clearances from eight Lions VFL games this year, that there’s a school of thought if he was on Brisbane’s AFL list this year, he’d be a regular member of the reigning premiers’ line-up.

The Lions could lose Brandon Starcevich and Callum Ah Chee to free agency, but their ins would outweigh those outs clearly.

“It’s important for the growth of the game, you need these local stars to come through and help promote your game,” Brown said. “Like (Michael) Voss and (Jason) Akermanis especially back in the day, they were the local products, it’s vitally important those guys keep coming through.

“Those academies are really important and strong, plus the Lions have had the benefit of father-sons in recent years. But that goes in swings and roundabouts, every club is the same.

“They know their academy is a really important part of their development for the list and the club. They put a lot of resources into it and develop that young talent to try and get access to them in the draft. You can understand why clubs are blowing up about it and the AFL potentially will limit it, but it’s very important to grow the draft pool Australia-wide.”

IS THIS ALL FAIR?

As this year’s Grand Finalists prepare to get better over the next few months, the likes of Carlton, North Melbourne and Carlton – whose most recent premierships were 1995, 1999 and 2000, respectively – are bracing to lose key players during the AFL exchange period before a draft pool considered shallower compared to recent years.

While all three clubs have featured in finals across the past two-and-a-half decades, their flag droughts remain. And it’s fair to suggest few pundits will be predicting any of them to make the top eight in 2026.

Speaking on Fox Footy’s AFL 360 on Tuesday night, league chief executive Andrew Dillon said he was “not concerned” by the chasm between the best and worst teams, but suggested it was “something that we’re acutely aware of”.

“We did have that top nine, bottom nine – very different from the two seasons before,” Dillon told AFL 360.

“What we did see this year, though, was Adelaide go from 15th to minor premiers. We had the Gold Coast make the finals for the first time ever. We had Freo for only the second time in about 10 years. So we are seeing clubs move up and down the ladder.

“I think some of those clubs that were outside the top nine – the Swans lots of injuries, the Bombers you haven’t seen an injury list like that for a while. But what we are keeping an eye on is those clubs that are down the bottom and are staying down the bottom. That’s something that’s taking up a bit of our attention at the moment.

“Fans want to have hope and you want to go into a season having hope and you prefer to be going in every weekend with a bit of hope.”

Dillon was then shown the potential inclusions for both the Lions and Cats and asked if the league’s equalisation measures were having the desired effect.

“I think what we are seeing is that there are clubs that are incredibly well run and they’ve got programs that players want to go to,” he said.

“We’ve got the three measures for equalisation: The access to talent – whether it’s free agency, trade or draft – the salary cap and then we’ve also got the soft cap. The clubs that can work at the best and make the best decisions, they’re the ones that are defying gravity – like the way the Lions have for the last few years and also like the Cats.

“Chris Scott’s record is incredible in his time there.”

And that’s the key, as both Brown and Dillon pointed out.

Swann, Fagan and Daly were the stable hands the Lions needed at their lowest ebb. The Cats, since 2000, have had just two senior coaches – Scott and Mark ‘Bomber’ Thompson – while having a stable football department administration.

Great clubs attract great players – and that trend will only continue across the next two months.

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