What ESPN’s FPI is projecting for Big 12 rivals BYU, Utah in 2025

BYU running back LJ Martin evades Utah defensive end Van Fillinger during a game at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024.

On Tuesday, ESPN released the initial rankings for one of its college football predictive measurements, the Football Power Index.

ESPN’s FPI, as it is commonly referred to, is used to project how the season will unfold, and it is updated throughout the year following each week.

This initial version, though, draws a baseline for how teams will be viewed entering the season.

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For BYU and Utah heading into their second year together in the Big 12, expectations and projections have flip-flopped from a year ago.

The Utes were the ones with promising projections to be in the Big 12 race and/or make the College Football Playoff.

Instead, it was the Cougars who ended up being a factor in those realms.

How does that shape the projections for the 2025 season?

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” ESPN explains.

“FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Here’s a look at how the FPI views BYU and Utah in a variety of categories:

BYU receiver Chase Roberts makes a catch in Provo on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. | Jeffrey D. Allred, Deseret News

What does ESPN’s FPI project for BYU?

BYU has an 8.4 score in ESPN’s FPI, which ranks No. 29 nationally and third in the Big 12.

Projected wins — 8.0

Odds of six wins (and bowl eligibility) — 89.2%

Last year, the Cougars were projected for 4.8 wins, with a 35.4% chance of becoming bowl eligible in the FPI formula.

Instead, BYU went 11-2, finished 7-2 in Big 12 play and won the Alamo Bowl.

Odds of winning the Big 12 — 10.4%

Odds of playing in the College Football Playoff — 12.6%

Odds of making the national championship game — 0.6%

Odds of winning a national championship — 0.1%

BYU is one of eight Big 12 teams with a slightly better than 0% chance of winning a national championship.

Kansas State has the best odds in the conference, at 0.4%.

Strength of schedule — 74th

BYU has the second-easiest schedule in the Big 12, per FPI’s calculations, only ahead of Houston at 75th.

The Cougars avoid playing the other two league teams ahead of it in the FPI — Kansas State and Arizona State — as well as the next Big 12 team in the FPI rankings, Kansas.

BYU’s highest-ranked Big 12 opponent in the FPI is TCU at No. 32 — the Cougars host the Horned Frogs on Nov. 15.

BYU’s highest-ranked league team it will face on the road is Texas Tech at No. 35 — the Cougars make the trip to Lubbock on Nov. 8.

Utah linebacker Lander Barton breaks away from Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht after intercepting a pass at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. | Isaac Hale, Deseret News

What does ESPN’s FPI project for Utah?

Utah has a 4.8 score in ESPN’s FPI, which ranks No. 46 nationally and 10th in the Big 12.

Projected wins — 6.4

Odds of six wins (and bowl eligibility) — 67.3%

Last year, the Utes were projected for 7.8 wins, with a 85.4% chance of becoming bowl eligible in the FPI formula.

Instead, Utah had its first losing season since 2014 in a 5-7 campaign during the team’s first year in the Big 12.

Odds of winning the Big 12 — 3.1%

Odds of playing in the College Football Playoff — 3.7%

Odds of making the national championship game — 0.1%

Odds of winning a national championship — 0%

For perspective, the FPI formula gave the Utes an 8.2% chance of winning the Big 12 and a 12.5% chance of making the playoffs last season.

Utah is one of eight Big 12 teams given a 0% chance of winning a national championship.

Strength of schedule — 58th

Utah has the sixth most-difficult schedule in the Big 12, per the FPI formula.

The Utes face the top four league teams in the FPI rankings.

They’ll host No. 21 Kansas State (Nov. 22) and No. 24 Arizona State (Oct. 11), while playing at No. BYU 29 (Oct. 18) and No. 30 Kansas (Nov. 28).

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