‘Hesitant to say’: Where AFL’s two new boys sit on historic double-final day 15 years in the making

On Saturday, the Giants will feature in their eighth finals series since entering the AFL in 2012, while the Suns — finally — will embark on their first September campaign since entering the competition one year prior to GWS.

Both clubs have taken vastly different roads leading to this point, but the AFL’s expansion siblings will this weekend play elimination finals on the same day.

Foxfooty.com.au talks with an AFL great about what the Giants and Suns can achieve this September and where the question marks lie, as well as analysing why one has thrived since inception, and the other has struggled.

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‘BOTH GOT QUESTION MARKS’: THE STATE OF PLAY

Inconsistency has been a theme for both sides this season and in their lead-up to finals.

The Giants won nine of their last 10 home-and-away games after starting the season with five losses from their first 10 matches.

Meanwhile, the Suns had won six of seven games, before losing two of their final three fixtures going into September.

“They’ve both got question marks on them, and that’s not (being) disrespectful — both of their forms have been so up and down for a while,” Adelaide Crows legend Mark Ricciuto told Foxfooty.com.au ahead of the first weekend of finals.

“If I had to pick one of the two, I think GWS will go further (in finals) than the Suns.”

‘WITHIN FIVE PER CENT’: SUNS FINALS KEYS

It might be the Suns’ first-ever run in the finals, but they’re led by a man who’s well-acquainted with the month of September.

“They’ve never been there, but they do have a coach who’s been there plenty of times — and that’s a good asset, don’t worry about that,” Ricciuto said of triple premiership coach Damien Hardwick.

“I saw Gold Coast get beaten by Port Adelaide two weeks ago; I reckon that was the worst Port Adelaide side I’ve ever seen on paper. But on the flip side, they were playing for Ken Hinkley and Travis Boak in their last game.

“That was an extremely disappointing performance by Gold Coast … they’ve played some really, really good football this year (though).

“For Gold Coast to do any significant damage in September, they’re going to have to be within five per cent of their best. You could probably say that for everyone, but on their day, they’re very good.”

‘HAS TO BE A TICK’: WHY SUNS ALREADY PASSED TEST

Saturday night in Perth against the determined Dockers is a daunting task for Gold Coast, and Ricciuto believes the fact they’ve qualified is enough to warrant a pass mark this season.

“I don’t know what Damien Hardwick and his staff are thinking, but if your side has never played finals in 15 years and you make them, I think that has to be (a) tick,” the 312-game Crows icon said.

“If you’re not giving yourself a tick for that, you’re a hard marker. But when you get there, you’ve got to make the most of your opportunity.

“If you put a mark through everything you’ve done in 2025 already, and then you lose your first final, I think it’s fair to be disappointed. But then three days later when you review it … (you’d say) we’ve taken a big step forward.”

When things get dicey against the Dockers, Hardwick’s Suns will look to lean on their one-wood: stoppage.

Led by All-Australians Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, Gold Coast finished the regular season third for points-from-clearance differential, fourth for contested possession differential, and second for clearance differential.

MORE ANALYSIS: Finals form guide — every 2025 finalist rated... who holds key and stars who must lift

GIANT ‘QUESTION MARK’

The Giants have a league-best 6-3 record against top-eight opposition, so we know their best footy is good enough to win it all. But they’d have to be just the third side to claim the silverware from outside the top four — and there’s also a lingering question mark over the health of several key players.

“They’ve got a great record against top eight sides, we know their best is really, really good,” said Ricciuto. “The question mark is, how many of their players are coming back from injury and what can they deliver in finals?

“They’ve got so many match-winners in their side that are experienced, they could do some serious damage.”

Integral key defender Jack Buckley and centre-forward ace Brent Daniels will remain absent due to injury, but Coleman medallist Jesse Hogan, dynamo Jake Stringer and smooth-moving veteran Josh Kelly have all been named to return for Saturday afternoon’s clash with Hawthorn.

‘HESITANT TO SAY’: WHY GIANTS CAN WIN IT ALL

The Giants boast emerging stars such as Finn Callaghan and Aaron Cadman, but the inclusions of the aforementioned senior bodies will be why they go far in September, if they do. GWS ranks ninth for games experience this year with an average 67.7 games played.

“Collingwood and Geelong have proven us wrong in that (age) department for a number of years,” Ricciuto said.

“I’m very hesitant to say that GWS has to win this year, but they’ve certainly got the cattle for it … they just can’t be inconsistent, and they have been inconsistent lately.

“I think GWS could win it. I wouldn’t put my last $20 on it, but if they got everything right, they’ve certainly got the talent to do it.”

Against top-eight opposition, the Giants have this year ranked first in the competition for intercept-to-score rate, first for half-back-to-score rate, and second for score-per-inside-50 rate.

DIFFERENT JOURNEYS

The Giants opted for tried-and-tested experience with their list build, and it forged the foundation for success not too far down the line.

They lured Callan Ward from the Bulldogs and Phil Davis from the Crows as leadership pillars — moves that paid significant dividends — while draftong the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel, Toby Greene and Stephen Coniglio in their formative years.

Legendary footy figure Kevin Sheedy was appointed their inaugural head coach for the first two seasons, instilling necessary values in a young group.

The club then had the stability of Leon Cameron for nearly a decade.

After three bottom-three ladder finishes in their first three years in the competition, the Giants finished 11th in 2015 before skyrocketing into the top four in ‘16 for their first finals appearance.

They notched four consecutive top-eight finishes between 2016-19, including a grand final debut from sixth spot in ‘19, and have qualified for the finals in the past three seasons.

They’re yet to win the ultimate prize, but they’ve been around the block more than enough times to consider themselves ready.

The Suns, on the other hand, made the signing splash of the decade, luring Gary Ablett from Geelong in 2010. But the names they surrounded him with didn’t quite pan out. Steven May, David Swallow and Jarrod Harbrow were their best additional recruits from the 2010-13 period, with the club managing just 14 combined wins in that period.

Before this year, the Suns’ best ladder finish was 12th in 2014; the great ‘what if’ campaign that saw Ablett infamously injure his shoulder and ended with the sacking of inaugural coach Guy McKenna.

That season was followed by five-straight bottom-four finishes. They again finished 12th in 2022 under then-coach Stuart Dew, but he was sacked midway through the next season as the Suns slumped back to 15th.

But after hiring Hardwick in late 2023, and after finally finding the right combination of leaders — headlined by the likes of Touk Miller, Jarrod Witts, Swallow, Sam Collins — they’ve finally surged to their first September campaign.

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