Bears vs Commanders Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for Monday Night Football Tonight

The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders square off under the Monday Night Football lights this week.

These two met in a thriller last season — a game that ended with Jayden Daniels connecting on a miracle Hail Mary to lift Washington.

This time, my Bears vs. Commanders predictions point to a far more comfortable night for the home side.

Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 6 clash on October 13.

Bears vs Commanders prediction

Bears vs Commanders Best bet: Commanders -4.5 (-110)

Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels will always be linked to each other after going first and second in the draft last year. Williams was the most hyped prospect in recent memory but has been inconsistent so far in his career with the Chicago Bears.

Meanwhile, Daniels put together the best season by a rookie quarterback in NFL history and has immediately turned around the Washington Commanders franchise.

Daniels missed Weeks 3 and 4 with a knee sprain but returned last week to lead Washington to a 27-10 win against the Chargers. The Bears are fresh off a bye and have won back-to-back games after an ugly start to the year. That said, those victories look less impressive in hindsight.

They beat a Cowboys squad that lost it's best player to an injury in Week 3 and they won on a last-second TD against a subpar Raiders squad in Week 4. They also benefited from three interceptions in both of those games and the efficient Daniels hasn't been picked off in his last five contests.

The Bears are second-last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (164.5) while ranking dead-last in yards allowed per carry (6.1). That's bad news against a Commanders attack that leads the NFL with 156.4 rushing yards per game.

Washington is ninth in the league in defensive success rate while Chicago ranks just 31st. I'll back the squad with the superior defense and the more reliable QB at home.

Bears vs Commanders MNF same-game parlay

The Commanders need to get the ball into the hands of speedster Jacory Croskey-Merritt against a terrible Bears run defense.

The rookie RB came out of nowhere to rush for 82 yards on 10 carries in Week 1 but was limited to 19 carries and 90 yards over his next three games. They finally fed him the ball last week and he rewarded them with 111 rushing yards and two scores on 14 carries.

Since I'm expecting a negative game script for the Bears it makes sense to take the Over on Williams' passing yards props. Especially since the Commanders are extremely weak in the secondary and rank 27th in the league in coverage grade per PFF.

Bears vs Commanders SGP

Commanders -4.5

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 63.5 rushing yards

Caleb Williams Over 232.5 passing yards

Our big-ticket SGP: Jacory Has Merit!

While Bears have been getting gashed on the ground, they've allowed just seven rush attempts and 62 rushing yards against opposing quarterbacks.

Daniels' mobility might not be at 100% and he could be less reluctant to run due to the knee injury he suffered in Week 2.

Bears vs Commanders SGP

Commanders -4.5

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 63.5 rushing yards

Caleb Williams Over 232.5 passing yards

Jayden Daniels Under 45.5 rushing yards

Bears vs Commanders game predictions

Bears vs Commanders moneyline prediction

The Commanders have a much better defense, and that, along with home-field advantage, should be enough to lead to a win on MNF.

Bears vs Commanders spread prediction

The Bears enter on a two-game win streak but they were fortunate to face turnover-prone quarterbacks. Daniels won't make those mistakes, and Washington's rushing attack will run all over Chicago's woeful defense.

Bears vs Commanders Over/Under prediction

The Commanders play at the third-fastest pace in the NFL, and even with a positive game script, they push the tempo and use no-huddle at an extreme rate.

I'm expecting them to run the ball at will against Chicago, but I also think the Bears will have success through the air. That has me leaning towards the Over.

Bears vs Commanders odds

Spread: Chicago +4.5 | Washington -4.5

Moneyline: Chicago +190 | Washington -230

Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5

Bears vs Commanders betting trend to know

The Commanders have covered the second half spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.72 Units / 28% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs Commanders.

How to watch Bears vs Commanders

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Bears vs Commanders latest injuries

Bears vs Commanders weather

Expect a cool, damp night in Landover. Clouds will hang in with periods of rain and drizzle through the evening, with temperatures sliding from the low 60s toward the mid-to-upper 50s by late game. The field will likely stay slick, and the ball will be wet throughout warmups and into kickoff.

That kind of moisture usually makes play-calling more conservative, so expect more runs, shorter passes, and a premium on ball security. Receivers can struggle out of breaks on a greasy surface, kickers face tougher plant footing, and punts may die on contact, shrinking hidden yardage. Whichever side controls the ground game, protects the football, and wins the field-position battle should have the edge tonight.

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

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