Postecoglou faces losing popularity contest unless Forest find liftoff

Replacing a Nottingham Forest hero was never going to be easy but Nuno Espírito Santo did a very cunning thing after Steve Cooper’s sacking: he won his first two games. A lot is forgotten about the opening six months of Nuno’s tenure, when the team survived one place above the relegation zone and went through a period of winning once in 10 Premier League matches.

Nuno had done the important thing of boosting morale and winning over the fans by defeating Newcastle away and creating excitement by beating Manchester United at home, and no one was clamouring for style points. The City Ground was rocking in late December 2023, and no home fans cared too much that they saw only two more victories there for the remainder of the season.

Ange Postecoglou is yet to taste success, becoming the first Forest head coach in a century to fail to win any of their first six games. There was a poisonous atmosphere at the City Ground on Thursday night as they succumbed to the second-best team in Denmark. When supporters are calling for your sacking after 23 days, it is fair to say things are not going well. On Friday there were no plans to dismiss Postecoglou but a defeat at Newcastle on Sunday could cost him his job.

Everyone at the club accepted there would be a period of transition because the Australian’s style of play is almost a polar opposite to the one Nuno finely tuned there. The plan was evolving under the Portuguese but not at the speed Postecoglou is trying to implement.

Starting with four away games was always going to be a difficult ask for Postecoglou. Opening at Arsenal meant building momentum from the first whistle was unlikely but losing at Swansea in the Carabao Cup and drawing at Burnley put Postecoglou on the back foot. The game at Real Betis appeared to be a turning point because the performance was impressive and fitting of expectations regarding Postecoglou’s style. The processes were correct and, but for a late Antony goal, takeoff would have commenced.

Instead Forest remain grounded. If Postecoglou could have been forgiven for the away results, losing at home to Sunderland and Midtjylland was not part of the thinking. There was a degree of mitigation in the first City Ground defeat: a generous free-kick award that led to the winner and appalling finishing from Forest meant the points went back to the north-east. Forest had almost two-thirds of possession and 22 shots but outscoring an opponent on xG is meaningless.

There was a hope that once the strikers found form, everything would be fine but poor finishing is only one of the problems facing Postecoglou. The robust defensive unit built by Nuno has been dismantled, leaving Postecoglou awaiting a clean sheet. Defending set pieces has been problematic, two of Midtjylland’s goals coming from them, and the other goal Forest conceded was from a counterattack, the sort that were a regular feature during Postecoglou’s time at Tottenham.

Postecoglou was eager to return to work quickly after being sacked by Tottenham, especially with a Europa League winner’s medal around his neck. He wanted to prove people wrong and Forest offered that opportunity, with the added bonus of being in the competition he had won in May. The Greek connection with Forest’s owner, Evangelos Marinakis, helped make the appointment smooth and Postecoglou, despite his critics, does have the credentials required – but pragmatism was not likely to be involved.

Nuno was not sacked for football reasons but for picking a fight with Marinakis that he was never going to win. Finishing seventh and taking Forest into Europe made Nuno incredibly popular. Despite his complaints, a squad capable of finishing in the top half was assembled and plenty of money was spent. After far too much short-termism at Forest, they had a clear long-term vision and strategy, which included a team that suited Nuno. Now it feels as if a stepdad has moved into the house and the children are not happy.

Trips to Newcastle and Bournemouth bookend the visit of Chelsea in the next three league games, suggesting life is only going to get harder. Marinakis made the appointment with his heart and is desperately hoping to avoid another sacking because removing Postecoglou would be an admission that he made two dreadful decisions in dismissing Nuno and selecting the replacement. Football is one big popularity contest and Nuno started winning his at St James’ Park. Postecoglou needs to do the same or he risks losing his for good.

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