Buccaneers vs Texans Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight's Monday Night Football Game

A Monday Night Football twinbill kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC tonight with Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading on the road to face the Houston Texans. Houston enters as a 2.5-point home favorite, while the total is set at 42.5.

My Buccaneers vs. Texans predictions expect heavy volume for Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz with injuries thinning Houston’s pass-catching depth.

Read on for my NFL picks for Monday, September 15.

Buccaneers vs Texans prediction

Buccaneers vs Texans Best bet: Dalton Schultz Over 37.5 receiving yards (-110)

Injuries could play a big role in Monday night’s matchup. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be without both starting tackles —Tristan Wirfs (limited, but listed as doubtful) and Luke Goedeke (DNP Friday, questionable).

On the other side, the Houston Texans could be down starting center Jake Andrews, who’s dealing with a high-ankle sprain. Chris Godwin and Christian Kirk are also expected to miss the game.

Both teams struggled to run the ball in Week 1, and these injuries could push even more volume toward the passing game on both sides. One player who could benefit is Dalton Schultz—far from a headline name, but quietly in a great spot.

Schultz played 54% of snaps with a 60% route share in Week 1 against the Rams. He was splitting time with Cade Stover, a blocking-first tight end who significantly cut into his workload. But Stover is now out indefinitely with a fractured foot, clearing the way for a bigger role for Schultz.

That’s important because Houston’s secondary pass-catching options are underwhelming. After Nico Collins, the Texans rotated through Xavier Hutchinson (68% snap share), Justin Watson (56%), and rookies Jayden Higgins (43%) and Jaylin Noel (27%). Nick Chubb doesn’t offer much in the passing game either.

Schultz went 3/28/0 on five targets in Week 1, but with more routes and limited WR competition, he’s in line for a bump. I’m projecting six to seven targets, four to five catches, and 45+ receiving yards. The Bucs also gave up seven catches on eight targets to Kyle Pitts last week.

I’ve also played Schultz to score a touchdown at +240.

Buccaneers vs Texans same-game parlay for Monday Night Football

With key offensive linemen out on both sides and poor run production in Week 1, we could see a pass-heavy script in Houston—and the indoor setting only boosts efficiency and volume through the air.

Nico Collins is the clear WR1 and draws a Tampa Bay defense that let Drake London finish as the second-most targeted WR in Week 1. On the other side, Mike Evans led the Bucs in both air yards and targets, while rookie Emeka Egbuka turned four catches (two touchdowns) into 67 yards. Both will be heavily involved with Chris Godwin expected to be out again.

Dalton Schultz is set up to be the No. 2 option in the Texans’ passing game. With Christian Kirk out and the Texans now relying on RB2 Nick Chubb, this WR group is among the thinnest in the NFL. Schultz should see consistent usage in a game script that favors passing.

Buccaneers vs Texans SGP

Nico Collins 70+ receiving yards

Mike Evans 70+ receiving yards

Emeka Egbuka 50+ receiving yards

Dalton Schultz 40+ receiving yards

Our big-ticket SGP: All pass, no breaks

Bucky Irving had a 64% route share to Rachaad White's 12% and the latter might not be in the plans of this offense with Liam Coen off in Jacksonville. His every-down usage might rival some of the top dogs in the NFL this year.

Schultz should be a factor in the red zone, with Nick Chubb not the answer for the run game, and a plethora of inexperience and a lack of catching talent in the receiver group. The Stover injury should turn him into a big usage guy Monday night.

Buccaneers vs Texans SGP

Bucky Irving 30+ receiving yards

Bucky Irving TD

Dalton Schultz 50+ receiving yards

Dalton Schultz TD

Buccaneers vs Texans game predictions

Buccaneers vs Texans moneyline prediction

After last week’s zero-touchdown showing from Houston, it’s hard to feel confident backing this offense. It’s a unit that was predictable last season, now working under a new OC, and ranked 31st in offensive success rate in Week 1. Tampa Bay has better weapons, and its defense held the Falcons to the worst EPA per rush last week indoors in Atlanta.

If the Texans insist on a run-heavy approach, Stroud could be forced into long-yardage situations — and with this thin group of pass-catchers, that’s not a formula for success.

Buccaneers vs Texans spread prediction

I’m not laying -2.5 with Houston on Monday night. We saw in Week 1 that Tampa Bay’s offense can flip the switch quickly, and Houston isn’t built to win by a margin with another performance like last week. The Bucs’ offensive line injuries are a concern, but their skill-position depth helps offset that.

Houston, possibly down its starting center, could struggle again offensively. This line opened Texans -1.5 (lookahead), climbed to -2.5 Monday morning, briefly touched -3, and has held mostly steady at -2.5.

Buccaneers vs Texans Over/Under prediction

I love indoor Overs as much as anyone—but with injuries on both offensive lines and likely penalties or busted plays, I’m leaning Under 42.5. The total opened at 46.5 on the lookahead, re-opened at 44.5 on Sunday, and hit 42.5 by Monday night.

This game has grind-it-out potential. Lean Bucs +2.5 and Under 42.5.

Buccaneers vs Texans odds

Spread: Tampa Bay +2.5 (-105) | Houston -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline: Tampa Bay +125 | Houston -150

Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)

Buccaneers vs Texans betting trend to know

The Texans have only hit the Over in six of their last 22 games (-10.60 Units / -44% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Texans.

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