Weekly Predictor: Who wins in Week 18?

The end of the CFL season is always a wild ride.

Some teams get players back from injury and go on a heater, while others may suffer some injuries and start to stumble.

You also see teams “click” at the right time, and go on a memorable run to a championship. We saw it from Montreal two years ago, and after another win with Davis Alexander back in Week 16, you start to ponder if another run by the Alouettes is coming.

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We’ve also seen a team who has been there, done that show everyone that experience does matter. The Blue Bombers have been in the murky middle of the league all season, but now look like they’re ready to flex their muscles in the West Division. The new KPMG Playoff Probability numbers should send a chill down the spine of the rest of the West with the Bombers holding the highest probability to win the 112th Grey Cup.

While it makes things a little difficult to decipher when you make your picks, if you get a good feeling about a team, you could be ahead of the curve before the rest and make up some ground with just four weeks left in the season.

SASKATCHEWAN AT OTTAWA

Friday, October 3

7:30 p.m. ET

TSN/RDS/CFL+

The Ottawa REDBLACKS started the week by trading Lorenzo Mauldin IV to the Calgary Stampeders, and that’s a massive loss on the defensive line for Ottawa as they ready themselves for the Roughriders on Friday Night Football.

Both teams are coming in on a two-game losing streak, but on completely opposite ends of the standings. The Roughriders are at the top and the REDBLACKS are at the bottom, but don’t think for a minute that Ottawa should be taken for granted. They still have Dru Brown, a solid receiving corps and playmakers on defence to get after Trevor Harris and the Riders.

The Roughriders, however, have a much stronger roster as head coach Corey Mace is getting more and more players back from injury each and every week. The major issue in Saskatchewan right now is the start of games. They only scored five points total in their last five games in the opening quarter, including zeros in three of the last five games.

The only team worse in the first quarter is Ottawa.

I usually have a formula for picks that has worked for me in the past. Pick the home team coming off a bye week if they’re playing a team on a short week that have back-to-back road trips. That formula would tell me to pick Ottawa this week.

I just can’t do it, however, with the Roughriders running the ball as well as they did last week.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN

HAMILTON AT TORONTO

Saturday, October 4

3:00 p.m. ET

TSN/CTV/CFL+

The Toronto Argonauts will be desperate. A loss by the Argonauts and they will be eliminated from the playoffs. That would be the first time since 2018 that a Grey Cup champion the year previous misses the playoffs (NOTE: That was also the Toronto Argonauts.)

The Tiger-Cats will be looking for a bounce-back game after getting embarrassed by the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in Week 17.

So what gives?

At this time of year, with teams starting to have the wear and tear on themselves, I put running back as a big factor. I like both of these running backs, so what do I default to next? Who has a better defence? That is also pretty close. Then let’s go the x-factors: the playmakers on the return game and special teams. That, too, is fairly close, which begs the question: how are the Argonauts in this position?

It’s all about a slow start and not being able to finish close games. They were 2-8 to start the year. They were staring at a large hole to climb out of and they just haven’t been able to do it.

Hamilton has to start feeling the heat from below as the Montreal Alouettes are charging hard.

I feel this Tiger-Cats team will be extra charged to play their rival and put them away, while also responding to an awful loss last week.

PICK: HAMILTON

CALGARY AT BC

Saturday, October 4

7:00 p.m. ET

TSN/CFL+

After a big BC win two weeks ago, the Calgary Stampeders will try to return the favour.

While the Lions were able to get it done this past week against Toronto to win their third straight, the Stampeders come in on a three-game losing streak. Just like that, there are three teams with eight wins for second place in the West Division.

Calgary, BC, and Winnipeg are now in a scrap for second, while still having an outside shot at eclipsing the Roughriders for first place.

After a hot start for the Stampeders, they can see the slide. The defence has completely fallen off and that is why they made the trade for Mauldin this week to improve the pass rush with Folarin Orimolade’s injury.

On the flip side, BC’s pass rush has improved greatly as the season has gone on and I don’t see that changing as the Lions could flip the script and take control of second place in the West Division.

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