CFL Week 17 predictions: best bets for Stamps at Als, Ticats at Bombers, Riders at Elks

It’s been a big week in the Canadian Football League and now the attention turns to the currently unchanged field with four more huge games on the schedule.

This week is all about change and I’m looking to change the results after a tough week last week, so let’s get to it.

Calgary Stampeders at Montreal Alouettes — Friday, September 26 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

The week begins with the Stampeders heading out to Montreal looking to solidify their grasp on a home playoff game.

The Stampeders had a rare off-week last week, getting blown out by the Lions. Vernon Adams Jr. was largely ineffective in that game before getting hurt. He’s set to start for Calgary this week despite the back injury and I’d expect a bounce-back from one of the league’s most electric players.

He’ll be going up against a Montreal defence that stepped up last week in a win over Toronto but has been put in some tough spots lately. The Alouettes have allowed 25-plus points in five of their last seven games. Even with that, they still have allowed the third-fewest points per game and are second in net defence. It is a talented group that has been put in tricky positions with inconsistent QB play.

That should change with Davis Alexander expected to return to the lineup for the first time since leading a game-winning drive against Toronto in mid-July. The Alouettes have been inconsistent in his absence, so they will be happy to get their undefeated franchise quarterback back in the lineup.

Alexander isn’t exactly getting a soft landing spot, taking on a Calgary defence that has been dominant this year. The Stamps have allowed the fewest points per game in the league this season and are third against the pass, though they got picked apart last week by Nathan Rourke. I don’t think that game is a blueprint for beating the Calgary defence, but if anyone can come close to executing Rourke’s “just be awesome” game plan from last week, it’s a healthy Alexander.

These are two teams that have Grey Cup aspirations and still have a lot to play for. Montreal should get a boost with their QB coming back, but if the Stamps are at their best, they should be able to keep this game close. I don’t see Calgary putting up two stinkers in a row. In fact, I’m willing to bet on it.

Pick: Calgary +4

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — Saturday, September 27 at 3:00 p.m. EDT

The Ticats are hitting the road and looking for their fourth win in a row as they take on the Blue Bombers.

Hamilton has found a groove again after some midseason struggles that let Toronto and Montreal back into the race for top spot in the East Division. Bo Levi Mitchell is having a fantastic season and while the big passing numbers haven’t been there the last couple of weeks, he still has four touchdown passes and two interceptions in the three-game winning streak. He is also less than 400 yards away from helping us cash the over 4,575 yards future ticket from Week 1.

Mitchell is going against a Winnipeg defence that has struggled to find its dominant form. They came up with some big plays last week against Ottawa, but I don’t see the two-time M.O.P. making the same mistakes as Dru Brown. Winnipeg has given up the third-most passing yards per game in the CFL this year, making this an excellent matchup for Mitchell. Keep an eye out for any passing yard props that could come out closer to kick-off.

On the other side of the ball, Zach Collaros has been a full participant in practice each of the first two days, so he should be ready to go for a Bombers team that won last week despite throwing the ball just eight times. Collaros will be a welcome sight for Winnipeg fans, but when healthy the 37-year-old has struggled to find consistency this season. Obviously, injuries have gotten in the way of that, but the star pivot has just two 300-yard games through the air this season.

Getting Collaros back is a big boost for this offence but I don’t think it will be enough to keep them ahead of the Ticats, who appear to be peaking at the right time.

Pick: Hamilton +1

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Edmonton Elks — Saturday, September 27 at 7:00 p.m. EDT

The Edmonton Elks welcome the West Division-leading Riders to Commonwealth Stadium to close out Week 17.

Edmonton is stinging after a disappointing loss to Hamilton put a large dent in their playoff plans, while the Riders are back from the bye week after a frustrating loss to Montreal.

The big problem in that game for Saskatchewan was the health of their secondary. Tevaughn Campbell hasn’t practiced this week, but the Riders could be getting a bit of help with Marcus Sayles taking part in both practices. When healthy, the Riders defence is one the league’s best, forcing the second-most turnovers in the league this year.

The big difference for the Green and White the last time these two teams played was their pass rush. Saskatchewan sacked Cody Fajardo eight times in a dominant defensive performance that powered the team to a three-point win. That game is a big reason why Saskatchewan is tops in the league in sacks even with one fewer game played than everyone aside from Calgary. It is also a pretty big reason why Edmonton is last in the league in sacks allowed.

Saskatchewan’s offence could be getting a boost with Samuel Emilus, Shawn Bane Jr., and Kian Schaffer-Baker all participating in the first two practices of the week. The Riders have had strong performances from a number of different players in their absence, but this could make the team that is second in net offence that much stronger.

Edmonton certainly has gotten better as the season has gone on, but I don’t believe that improvement has them at the level of the Riders.

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