The Best NFL Bets of Week 11

When you think about sitting down to watch football on Sunday, you dream about a single window with multiple games as compelling as the late window of Week 11.

After last week’s three blowouts that were basically over by halftime, we’re in dire need of an electric viewing slate. This week, with two high-leverage clashes and four division games, we’re in luck. The Rams host the Seahawks in a battle of 2025’s biggest overachievers, with the winner moving into NFC West pole position. The Chiefs currently find themselves outside the playoff spots, but betting markets have them as a co-favorite to win the AFC West. If they’re going to make good on the betting market’s respect for them, they almost certainly have to win in Denver on Sunday. Meanwhile, the very injured 49ers try to complete a season sweep of the slightly less injured Cardinals. And the always-pesky-at-home Cleveland Browns will try to slow down the Ravens.

The Colts and Saints are on bye this week following wins in Week 10, leaving us with 15 games on the card. Here are my thoughts on the Week 11 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)

The Favorite Five

I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks. Through 10 weeks, this column is 40-42 overall and 22-28 on the Favorite Five. Maybe we’ll do better in the second half of the season.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (–3.5)

The Falcons are in a brutal spot on the back end of a European trip where they had to play an overtime game against the Colts. It’s rare to see a game where the road team has a rest and travel advantage, but that is the case as the Panthers visit the Falcons. Even despite the bad spot, I’m choosing to bet on the Falcons here.

Carolina shut down Michael Penix Jr. and blanked the Falcons 30-0 in their first meeting, but it’s not as if the Panthers offense was efficient in that game. Carolina had a defensive touchdown and finished with just 4.1 yards per play on offense.

While Rico Dowdle and the rushing attack has impressed some weeks as of late—namely in wins against Dallas and Green Bay—I question how sustainable this is when Bryce Young remains a very limited passer and the offensive line continues to lose key players to injuries. New Orleans hasn’t been able to stop the run much all year, yet they bottled up the Panthers last Sunday. Carolina’s rushing attack is the team’s one element that usually stands out really well metrically, but I seriously question its sustainability.

Penix has been quite inconsistent as the Falcons’ starter, but the Panthers lack of a pass rush (dead last in pressure rate) should make life easier for him.

Verdict: Bet Falcons –3.5 (–110)

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

Justin Herbert was under immediate pressure all game long on Sunday Night Football, and the Chargers offense remained functional. It’s not hyperbolic to say that Herbert has the toughest job in the NFL right now given his surrounding situation. After battling Pittsburgh’s ferocious front in prime time, the Chargers make their second cross-country trip in three weeks to face the Jaguars in an early-kickoff game. It has all the makings of a Chargers letdown.

With Brian Thomas Jr. returning to practice on Wednesday and Brenton Strange coming back from injury, Jacksonville’s offense is trending back in the right direction. I know how much Trevor Lawrence has struggled, but Jacksonville did just play three of the five best defenses in the NFL (Seahawks, Rams, Texans) in the last month.

It’s an ugly home underdog after an embarrassing loss, but this is a decent sell signal on the Chargers, who still have the same flaws they did prior to smothering Pittsburgh.

Verdict: Bet Jaguars +3

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (–8.5)

This is the first of many games impacted by the wind in the northeast on Sunday, with forecasted gusts around 20 mph. We’ve already seen Dillon Gabriel play in bad weather this season, specifically in high winds. Against the Dolphins at home three weeks ago, the Browns ran the ball as much as possible and tried to hide Gabriel’s arm-talent limitations. Cleveland made the game as ugly as possible, caused some Tua Tagovailoa turnovers, and won comfortably. Neither team eclipsed 220 yards of offense and the result was a 31-6 Browns win that really should have been more like 17-6 based on how the game played out.

As for the Ravens, they did enough to scrape past Minnesota on Sunday with an improved defense, but Lamar Jackson did not look 100 percent. He then missed practice with a knee issue on Wednesday. While I have no doubt that Jackson will play this Sunday, you’ll probably see the Ravens try to prevent him from running. Baltimore will want to try to lean on Derrick Henry, but the Browns matched up well with him in their first meeting this season, as he finished with 23 yards on 11 carries. Given this is a game with wind concerns, there’s room for this total to drop even further. Gabriel has shown little to even suggest he’s an NFL starter, and the Ravens secondary should be able to block most avenues of the Browns’ offensive success.

Verdict: Bet under 39.5 (–110)

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (–5.5)

This column has been laced with negative commentary on both the Bengals defense and the Steelers in general this season. Ahead of the teams’ second meeting, it’s time to choose your fighter. The complicating factor of this game is, just like in Cleveland, the heavy wind forecast for Pittsburgh on Sunday. Usually wind will drive down the total but have little impact on the spread. After all, both teams have to play in it. However, I think the Steelers offense is much better equipped to handle adverse weather conditions. The Bengals offense is driven heavily by throws to the boundaries to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Joe Flacco has a big arm, but it’s harder to be precise on those throws in these conditions.

Meanwhile, the Steelers can run the ball at will against an awful Bengals run defense. Aaron Rodgers doesn’t really throw the ball down the field, anyway. The Steelers like to use their tight ends on short throws, which Cincinnati hasn’t been able to cover all season. Rodgers playing a point-and-shoot, quick-strike offense against this Bengals defense shouldn’t really have an issue scoring points.

The Giants are the only team with worse EPA per rush defensive metrics than the Bengals, and that should give Pittsburgh an opportunity to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Verdict: Bet Steelers –5.5

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (–2.5)

There’s a recurring theme here: If your team is playing in the northeast on Sunday, their game will be impacted by wind. In addition to Pittsburgh, Cleveland, (and Buffalo), Philadelphia has high winds forecasted, with gusts potentially reaching 30 mph. The weather conditions will probably make Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts even more cautious in obvious passing situations. No one loves a third-and-long run like Philly. Also, A.J. Brown is already telling fantasy owners to drop him.

On the one hand, the matchup of Brown and DeVonta Smith against this poor Detroit secondary could be a serious problem. On the other hand … what even is the Philly offense at this point? The Eagles have run the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL (yet haven’t effectively utilized Saquon Barkley), and the passing game is so annoyingly bland and predictable that it felt like Green Bay knew every play ahead of time on Monday night.

I am generally lower than the betting markets on both of these teams. When the line first opened near a pick ’em, I was going to bet the Eagles at home. But now the Eagles are close to a 3-point favorite, and I don’t really know what to expect from their offense.

On the other side of this matchup, the Lions threw the ball a lot more against Washington on Sunday once Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. Was that a matchup feature? Or a philosophical change in how the Lions will operate for the rest of the year? It’s not inherently clear, but the Eagles will be at home in prime time and that defense is as healthy as it’s been all season. For the second straight week in an Eagles prime time game, I think points will be at a premium.

Verdict: Bet under 46.5 (–110)

Thursday Night Football

New York Jets at New England Patriots (–13)

There hasn’t been a truly compelling and exciting NFL prime-time game since the Steelers-Bengals thriller in Week 7. Sadly, I don’t think this game will provide many thrills, either. The Jets have won back-to-back games in wonky ways—an absurd comeback against a terrible Bengals defense and a special-teams master class against the Browns. You could make a case that the Jets are a zero-dimensional offense, but they can excel at running the ball at times. Unfortunately, that could be a problem against New England. The Patriots are a pass funnel defense that’s elite at stopping the run (sixth in EPA per rush allowed), however they do have some holes covering the middle of the field, and they do allow a lot of receptions to running backs.

The game script sets up for the Jets to be in a lot of passing downs, and that’s concerning given how limited the passing game is (especially without Garrett Wilson). However, much like last week's Raiders-Broncos line, there comes a time when we have to bet the numbers, not the teams. And while Denver’s offense was too limited to lay almost 10 to the Raiders, I have enough questions about the Patriots to wonder if they should really be laying nearly two touchdowns on Thursday.

It’s tough to back a rookie head coach on a short week. It’s even tougher to bet the Jets. But it’s too many points to ignore and there are +13s out there you can bet.

Verdict: Bet Jets +13 (–110)

The Rest of the Slate

Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders (+2.5, in Madrid)

Most of the international games this year have not been memorable, and the across-the-pond slate goes out with a whimper with this low-octane battle between the Commanders and Dolphins. I tried to be super sharp and buy low on the Commanders last week +8.5 at home against Detroit and, well, that was a really dumb bet. The Lions had eight full possessions and scored eight times. To make matters worse, the Commanders lost defensive back Trey Amos to injury and top defensive tackle Daron Payne to suspension. Dan Quinn is taking over play calling for the defense, but the problems for that unit run a whole lot deeper than Xs-and-Os. There’s barely a viable defense left.

Washington had a bad defense last year, and now at least five of their 11 Week 1 starters from this season are out for this game (two in the secondary and three on the defensive line). Washington has allowed 3.67 points per possession in its last four games, which is somehow even worse than the embarrassing defense that Cincinnati is trotting out every week. The Commanders are bottom-four at generating pressure during that time frame, which should mean that Tua Tagovailoa has no problem moving the ball up and down the field.

With a depleted roster, it’s apparent which version of the Commanders defense we’ll get, and it’s not much. The more interesting challenge is sorting out which version of mercurial Miami we’ll see. The Dolphins offense remains perfectly average. Once you remove the outlier bad-weather game in Cleveland, the Dolphins rank 13th in EPA per drive.

Miami should be able to score, and the Washington offense remains capable enough to put some points on the board with Marcus Mariota filling in for Jayden Daniels. I usually prefer to avoid the international games, but this total stood out.

Verdict: Bet over 47.5 (–104)

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (–3)

The market opened this game at Vikings –2.5 and didn’t take long to push onto 3. The Bears may be 6-3, but the market is well aware that they are not as good as their record indicates. Chicago has played the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFL, and the quality of opposing defenses has been especially bad; Chicago’s wins have come against Cincinnati, Dallas, Washington, Las Vegas, New Orleans, and the Giants. That said, the Bears rushing offense has improved dramatically since their bye, jumping from 29th in EPA per rush from Weeks 1 through 4 to third in EPA per rush from Weeks 6 through 10.

That’s a credit to Ben Johnson’s scheme and an offensive line that has gelled together. But at the same time, it’s also somewhat driven by the poor quality of opposition. Caleb Williams has been the improviser-in-chief and generated a ton of big plays out of structure, but that’s also much harder to pull off against a Brian Flores defense.

Then there’s the matter of the Bears defense, which has benefitted a ton from turnovers and isn’t quite good enough on a down-to-down basis. If you remove turnover EPA from the sample of plays, the Bears defense is 30th in EPA per play allowed, ahead of only the Bengals and Cowboys. This defense generated more EPA from turnovers in the first 10 weeks of a season than any other defense in the 2020s. That’s not going to continue. Chicago would get healthier if corners Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson return later this season, but that won’t help them this Sunday.

The main problem I have laying a full 3 points, however, is expecting J.J. McCarthy to be efficient. The Vikings quarterback ranks 36th out of 37 QBs with at least 100 plays in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) composite. Still, this is an ideal matchup for him since Chicago’s defense doesn’t generate much pressure. If the line bounces back to Minnesota –2.5, I’d bet them, but it’s a pass at –3.

Verdict: Lean Vikings –3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (–5.5)

Here we are, the final wind game: Gusts at Highmark Stadium will likely play a role in this one, and it’s a reason that the total moved from 50.5 down to 48.5. The wind forecast, per Accuweather, is 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph. Neither of these offenses are operating at peak efficiency due to some important injuries. Baker Mayfield has zero scrambles in the last three weeks as he battles issues with his oblique and knee. There was optimism that some rest would help him over the bye, but he still wasn’t moving close to full strength against New England last week. A saving grace, though, is that Buffalo’s defense will give up explosive plays at a high clip, which is where Tampa Bay can keep its offense afloat. On paper, this could make for a big Emeka Egbuka performance on Sunday.

Dalton Kincaid left the Bills’ puzzling loss to the Dolphins last week with a hamstring injury. We know that Buffalo is run-heavy almost to a fault, and that means Joe Brady will be calling a lot of runs into the teeth of the Tampa Bay defense. While the Bucs gave up multiple high-yardage plays to the Patriots rushing attack, it remains a high-quality down-to-down rush defense.

The Bills have the second-highest rush rate in the NFL, and Tampa Bay is limited offensively since Mayfield’s injuries have piled up. This game could get weird and open up in the second half, but I think a slow start to scoring is in the cards.

Verdict: Bet first half under 24.5 (–120)

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+7)

The Texans don’t need C.J. Stroud to beat the Titans, but I need to know the status of Stroud’s health before I consider betting this game. Stroud suffered a concussion in Week 9 and missed Week 10, but if he’s fit to play, he’ll rejoin a Texans offense that is trending upward—for one of the friendliest defensive matchups in the NFL. The Texans offense has been showing signs of life after incorporating more Woody Marks, going into jumbo offensive line sets more often, and, well, playing weaker defenses. Is it too late to salvage their season? That’s the question we’ll answer over the next month.

As of Wednesday night, we don’t know whether Stroud will play. It seems like he’s trending toward out, as the market has moved this line further toward Tennessee. I’ll be passing if Davis Mills is the starter.

Verdict: Pass

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (+7)

The NFL’s ultimate chaos agent is back. I hate to be the guy to pour cold water on the ball of energy that is Jameis Winston, but this is a brutal matchup for him. Not only do the Packers excel at generating pressure, but they also take away explosive plays at an elite rate. That’s a combination that makes for a top-level defense. The Packers defense is constantly creating havoc and preventing big gains. Not great if you’re a quarterback who relies on big plays and is subject to bad decision-making.

On the flip side, there is the issue of this Green Bay offense. The Packers were sloppy and anemic offensively in consecutive games against the Panthers and Eagles. The skill group is decimated by injuries, with Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden, and Jayden Reed out. Add in an injury to center Elgton Jenkins, and now there’s a big magnifying glass on both Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love. Green Bay has been extremely run heavy on early downs, and the lack of a running game has limited the offense’s ability.

They should be able to run the ball in this matchup against the Giants, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers had a get-right offensive game. Then again, I’ve been a Packers truther all year, so I might be wishing away their flaws too much.

Verdict: Lean under 43.5 (–107)

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (–3)

These two teams aren’t just 7-2 this season; they are also 7-2 against the spread. The Seahawks have the best DVOA metrics in the NFL, while the Rams sit in second. If you remove your preseason priors about these teams, you could make a convincing case that they are the two best teams in the league. The most interesting half of this matchup is the Seattle offense against the Los Angeles defense.

The Rams defense grades out well metrically, but it has a gettable secondary. Earlier this season, Los Angeles squandered a second-half lead to Philadelphia’s inconsistent passing offense. Mac Jones carved them open twice. Daniel Jones’s Colts would have scored 27 points if not for Adonai Mitchell’s goal line fumble. The Rams rely on generating quick pressure and stopping the run to cover the deficiencies on the back end.

It would be easy to compare this game to the last time we saw Sam Darnold against the Rams, but this is different. Last season, the Rams crushed the Vikings in the playoffs, and Darnold took nine sacks. But that Minnesota offense had Darnold holding on to the ball longer, which made him more susceptible to taking sacks, and that’s not how Klint Kubiak’s Seahawks currently operate. Seattle has used a lot of heavy personnel with extra tight ends on the field and beaten teams with play-action out of those formations. I am wondering what happens if the Seahawks are put into obvious passing situations, though.

Both offenses will probably struggle to run the ball and potentially get stuck in some uncomfortable third-down spots. The Rams are considerably better at passing if it comes to that.

I think the Rams will squeak out a close one at home, but I’m not all that interested in laying a full three points. I could get invested if this line comes back toward the opener of Rams –2.5.

Verdict: Bet Rams at –2.5, not as interested at –3

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+3)

The market has bounced back and forth between Cardinals +3 and Cardinals +2.5 for most of the week. It jumped back to +3 following the news on Wednesday that Marvin Harrison Jr. had surgery for appendicitis and will not play on Sunday. If the Cardinals were at full strength, I’d think they were underrated, and I would bet on them in this spot. Alas, that is not the case. The Cardinals also have a ton of players out at important positions on defense. Critical corners Max Melton and Will Johnson didn’t play against the Seahawks, and multiple players in the front seven left that game with injuries. Edge rusher Baron Browning is in the concussion protocol, and linebacker Mack Wilson is out again.

When these two teams first met, San Francisco was considerably healthier than it is now and still closed as just a 1.5-point home favorite. Since then, the 49ers offense has improved, but the defense has become even more injured and vulnerable.

It’s hard to justify the 49ers being a significant road favorite here, but Arizona is too depleted offensively to take advantage of this.

Verdict: Pass

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+3.5)

If you were hoping to buy Kansas City at a discount price due to its underperforming record and sell Denver, which has outperformed expectations with an 8-2 record, you’re basically out of luck. The Chiefs are still 3.5-point favorites in Denver, a signal that the betting odds remain highly skeptical of the enigmatic Bo Nix and the Broncos.

Elite offenses have had success against the Broncos defense. The Colts scored 29 points against it earlier this year. In Week 3, the Chargers, who aren’t even elite but were healthier then, had 29 first downs against Denver. Last season, Buffalo and Baltimore navigated Denver’s excellent pass rush and scored at will. Since the Broncos still don’t have Patrick Surtain II due to an injury, and Andy Reid will probably have some new wrinkles coming out of the bye, Denver feels at risk. Mahomes can especially exploit Denver’s linebackers in coverage over the middle of the field, where they are vulnerable.

Maybe Nix has another backdoor, late-game rally in him, but I’m trusting the Chiefs because of the Mahomes effect and worrying about the rest later.

Verdict: Bet Kansas City ML (–200)

Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5)

The Cowboys laying more than a field goal on the road feels almost impossible given the state of their defense. Maybe the additions of Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson will turn the unit from historically bad to just mediocre, but I’m not holding my breath.

My main question is: Who on the Cowboys will cover Ashton Jeanty out of the backfield and Brock Bowers all over the field? The Raiders’ two best offensive skill players are at positions that the Cowboys have struggled mightily to cover. Some of that is schematic, and some of that is due to the personnel.

As much as I’d love to bet against the Cowboys defense, the Raiders offensive line consisted almost entirely of backups by the end of the Denver game. They’ll be without three starters for Monday night, including both guards. If Vegas becomes one-dimensional, Geno Smith will have to drop back a lot, and he's likely to make multiple mistakes in the process.

Verdict: Pass

The Favorite Five

Falcons -3.5

Steelers -5.5

Jaguars +3

Ravens-Browns under 39.5

Lions-Eagles under 46.5

Other Bets

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