MEGA-PREVIEW: Cats v Lions, stats that matter, who wins and why

Follow it LIVE: Geelong v Brisbane from 7.40pm AEST

SUMMARY

These two clubs are at the centre of a budding rivalry, and if the preliminary final last year is any guide, this should be a classic.

The Lions charged home past the Cats last September on their way to a first premiership since 2003 and Friday night's clash marks the fourth final between the clubs in the past six seasons.

Brisbane has beaten Geelong twice this year and, with its MCG hoodoo well and truly behind it, has won its past five games at the famous ground.

Where and when: MCG, Friday September 5, 7.40pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round three: Brisbane 10.10 (70) defeated Geelong 9.7 (61) at the Gabba

Round 15: Brisbane 14.8 (92) defeated Geelong 6.15 (51) at GMHBA Stadium

After their stirring preliminary final win over the Cats last year, the Lions did the double over Geelong in 2025 in two contrasting affairs. Brisbane came from 32 points down at a wet Gabba in round three, with All-Australian Hugh McCluggage (30 disposals, eight tackles, six clearances) playing a key role. Brisbane's win in Geelong in June was ominous as it spoiled Patrick Dangerfield's 350th game, and won at GMHBA Stadium for the first time since 2003 to end another hoodoo. Young gun Logan Morris kicked five goals, while Coleman Medal winner Jeremy Cameron booted four for the Cats, whose inaccuracy also proved costly.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Geelong

The Cats struck it lucky with their fixture in 2025 and just whether their easy run home is a positive or a negative remains to be seen, but they are riding a six-game winning streak. Since 2000, Geelong is just the second team to head into a finals series having played six games in a row against bottom-10 opponents.

Brisbane

Led by co-captain Harris Andrews, the Lions thrive on intercepts. Andrews is ranked No.4 in the League for total intercept possessions in 2025, but Darcy Wilmot (No.21), Jaspa Fletcher (No.24) and Dayne Zorko (No.34) are also in the top 40. Brisbane is unbeaten when it has outscored its opponents from intercepts this year, winning 15 times and drawing once. It is 1-5 in the six games it has been outscored from that source.

Harris Andrews handballs during the match between Geelong and Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium in round 15, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Geelong

Max Holmes' hamstring injury in last year's preliminary final may have been what ultimately cost the Cats a Grand Final spot, but the running machine has bounced back to enjoy the best season of his career. He was named in the 44-man All-Australian squad but, perhaps unluckily, missed out on selection in the final team. Given the strength of the Lions' midfield, Holmes – alongside Bailey Smith – will have to play a big role if the Cats are to secure a home preliminary final.

Max Holmes during the R24 match between Geelong and Richmond at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on August 23, 2025. Picture: Getty Images/AFL Photos

Brisbane

While he hasn't enjoyed his best season, Charlie Cameron has flourished on the finals stage, and if he can hit form in September the Lions will be hard to stop in their bid to win back-to-back premierships. Cameron has kicked 26 goals this year, and five in the past fortnight against finalists Fremantle and Hawthorn. Cameron has booted 47 majors in his 23 finals appearances, including 36 in 16 for Brisbane, with at least one goal in each of those September outings in Lions colours.

Charlie Cameron celebrates a goal during Brisbane's clash against Hawthorn in round 24, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

PREDICTION

This should be an absolutely enthralling contest between two modern-day heavyweights. The Cats will need big games from Holmes, Smith and Jeremy Cameron, but it's Brisbane's midfield depth that could give it the edge in this clash, with Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley and the returning Lachie Neale, plus the game-breaking ability of Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner. Lions by eight points.

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